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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Banks is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Sam Banks

Richmond

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -250 (1.40)
+4.5% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
75.9%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
20.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.9%—71.4%1.32+4.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Banks (Richmond) Over 16.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, Sam Banks stands out like a beacon in the upcoming clash between North Melbourne and Richmond at Marvel Stadium. Banks has been a midfield maestro in his recent away games, averaging a whopping 19.8 disposals, with a solid disposal efficiency of 77.5%. His ability to find space and impact the game is evident, with an average of 12.2 kicks and 7.6 handballs in his last five away outings. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's previously notched up an average of 14 disposals against, Banks is poised to shine. With his current form showing a stellar hit rate and a six-game streak of hitting his disposal mark, taking the Over on Banks' 16.5 disposals line is not just a bet; it's a smart investment in a player on fire.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.6avg disposals L5
Home20.6vs Hawthorn16.3Season best25
O 17.550%
O 18.540%
O 19.540%
O 20.520%
O 21.520%
O 22.510%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 13.4 · hi 25 · lo 6
10661617151425169

Sam Banks has gone over 19.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.6 disposals, best 25).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 16.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Banks (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Banks is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 19 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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