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Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's AFL Prop Bets — Free Player Props for Every Game

Free AFL player props — disposals, goals and marks. Every prop shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

See today's props Verified track record Results

Today's player props

Strongest plays first · updated daily

87 props on the board, and the 2 strongest are free

The prop we'd back first · Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers
Michael Frederick Over 10.5 disposals -156
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win80.9%
The price says60.9%
$50 returns$82.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each prop below
HAW v FRE Michael Frederick Over 10.5 disposals High81% chance -156
BRI v SYD Conor McKenna Over 0.5 goals High73% chance -116
CAR v GEE High73% chance —
WB v ADE High73% chance —
HAW v FRE High75% chance —
HAW v FRE High82% chance —
HAW v FRE High85% chance —
HAW v FRE High73% chance —
HAW v FRE High92% chance —
HAW v FRE High71% chance —
HAW v FRE High70% chance —
HAW v FRE High71% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
85 more props for today
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Michael Frederick Over 10.5 Disposals
Chance to win: 80.9% The price says 60.9%
Best price -156

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Michael Frederick Over 10.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Michael Frederick has been on a roll lately, racking up more disposals than usual. He's been getting around 5.5 ground ball gets and 2 tackles inside 50, which shows he's really in the game. With his current form, going for over 10.5 disposals seems like a solid choice. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched, so it could be a tough fight for the ball. However, Frederick's strong performances give him a good shot at hitting that number. With the odds at -156, this bet looks like it could be worth a shot.

AFL • Brisbane Lions at Sydney Swans •
Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals
Chance to win: 73.4% The price says 53.7%
Best price -116

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For the bet to work tonight, Conor McKenna needs to score at least one goal. The numbers give it a good chance since he has been strong lately, showing he can find the scoreboard. The Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions match-up is always competitive, and McKenna has been in good form, which boosts his chances of getting that goal. One thing to keep in mind is that both teams can be pretty tight on defense, so it might not be easy for him. However, with his recent play, it looks like he can make it happen. Betting on him to score a goal is worth a shot!

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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 63.3%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 66.2%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 54.1%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 73.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 52.6%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 51.8%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 53.2%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 53.2%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 70.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 77.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 61.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 64.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 53.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 53.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 78.1%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 70.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 60.6%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 73.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 59.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 66.6%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 69.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 62.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 61.8%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 78.1%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 83.3%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 61.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 69.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 80.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 74.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 74.6%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 61.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 76.3%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 69.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 66.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 71.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 80.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 76.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 81.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 88.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 89.3%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 72.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 76.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 88.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 78.2%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 65.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 83.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 68.1%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 88.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 87.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 80.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 83.3%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 67.6%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 75.2%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 67.6%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 87.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 74.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 69.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 70.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 76.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 80.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 69.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 87.7%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 73.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 71.4%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 78.1%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 76.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 85.5%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 70.9%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 84.8%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 78.1%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 72.0%
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AFL • Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers •
Hawthorn Hawks at Fremantle Dockers Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 72.5%
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AFL • Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats •
Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 61.7%
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AFL • Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats •
Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 66.7%
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AFL • Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats •
Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 70.9%
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AFL • Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats •
Carlton Blues at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 72.0%
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AFL • Brisbane Lions at Sydney Swans •
Brisbane Lions at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 83.3%
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AFL • Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Crows •
Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Crows Prop Bet
Chance to win: High The price says 71.4%
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Keep going — related AFL pages
AFL Picks AFL Picks AFL Odds AFL Parlays Prop Cheat Sheet AFL Analysis AFL Matchups

Click any team or player name on the prop cards above to view their full profile and pick history. External reference: AFL.com.au.

New to props? Everything below explains how to read them.

Quick answer

What is an AFL player prop bet?

An AFL player prop bet is a wager on an individual player's match statistics rather than the final score. Common markets include disposals, goals, marks and AFL Fantasy points, typically structured as over or under a listed line. Bet Better estimates the true probability of each prop outcome and shows the edge versus bookmaker odds — helping you identify props that may offer value before you place.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL player prop, strongest plays first — each with its chance to win, the best price and the reasoning. Click any player name to view their full pick history and profile. For full game picks, use AFL Picks. For the highest-confidence shortlist, use Picks.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the prop outcome hits. A 70% probability means the model thinks it succeeds 70 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from posted odds. Positive edge means the model rates the outcome higher than the market is pricing it.

Odds Market

The market price at time of calculation. Odds move throughout the day — always verify at your sportsbook before placing. If odds shorten, your edge shrinks.

AFL player prop markets — what's available?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Disposals Over or under a player's total kicks and handballs. Midfielders in high-disposal roles with consistent output and clear matchup edges.
Goals Whether a forward kicks at least one (or a set number of) goals. Key forwards with strong lead patterns against specific defensive matchups.
Marks Over or under a player's total contested and uncontested marks. Tall forwards and key defenders whose role produces reliable marking volume.
Fantasy Points Over or under a player's combined AFL Fantasy score for the game. Versatile players whose output is consistent across multiple stat categories.

How to read AFL player props in 4 steps

  1. Check probability first. The model's estimated chance the prop hits. Compare this against the implied probability from the odds to judge value independently before reading the edge number.
  2. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model rates the probability higher than the bookmaker's price implies. The larger the positive edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  3. Verify odds before placing. Odds displayed are a snapshot and change as the market moves. A prop that shows +12% edge at $1.85 is meaningless if you're placing at $1.65 — always check your sportsbook.
  4. Read the reasoning. Expand the AI reasoning section for context on why the model rates this prop — matchup factors, role context, recent form signals. Use it as a starting point for your own analysis, not a replacement for it.
Note: Probability and edge are statistical estimates — they do not guarantee outcomes. For the same-game multi version of these props, see AFL Multis. Always bet responsibly and within your limits.
Data first

Probability, edge and odds are shown for every prop — so you evaluate each selection on numbers rather than feel.

AI reasoning

Every prop includes an AI-written reasoning summary covering matchup context, role factors and form signals relevant to the outcome.

Responsible betting

Props are informational only. Betting involves risk. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

AFL Player Props FAQ

Quick answers
What is an AFL player prop bet?

An AFL player prop bet is a wager on an individual player's match statistics — such as disposals, goals, marks or AFL Fantasy points — rather than the game result. Props are typically structured as over or under a bookmaker's listed line, meaning you bet whether the player will exceed or fall short of a specific statistical threshold for that game.

How do probability and edge work on this page?

Probability is Bet Better's model-estimated chance the prop outcome hits, expressed as a percentage. Edge is the difference between that probability and the implied probability derived from the bookmaker's decimal odds — a positive edge indicates the model rates the outcome more likely than the market price implies. Higher positive edge can signal better value, but it does not guarantee a win; all betting involves variance.

What are the most common AFL player prop markets?

The most common AFL player prop markets are disposals (over/under total kicks and handballs), goals (whether a player scores one or more), marks (over/under contested and uncontested marks), and AFL Fantasy points (over/under combined fantasy score). Some bookmakers also offer combination props such as 25-plus disposals and a goal, or player milestone markets.

Can I use AFL player props in a Same Game Multi?

Yes — most Australian sportsbooks allow player props as legs in a Same Game Multi for AFL. Bet Better focuses on individual prop value, which you can combine based on your own risk preference and the SGM odds offered by your bookmaker. For model-ranked multi recommendations with combined probability shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Can I view a team's full player prop history?

Yes. Click any team name on a prop card to go to that team's profile page, which includes their upcoming game pick, today's player props, model performance history, and a full player directory. Team profiles are updated automatically as new props are generated each week.

Can I view a player's full pick history?

Yes. Click any player name on a prop card to view their individual profile, which shows their latest pick, model probability and edge, AI reasoning, and their complete track record of past picks with results. Player profiles are a useful reference for assessing model consistency on a specific player over time.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL player props will win?

No. AFL player props are statistical predictions intended to inform betting decisions — no outcome is guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk, and even high-probability props fail a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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