SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3 @ +750) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 2.5 @ +750) TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Totals hitting 80.0% over 30 days WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4 @ +400) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3.5 @ +450) TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +538.1 units this season TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 79.6% over 30 days SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1218.7 units this season SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1238.5 units this season WIN: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +124) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +106) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5 @ +195) SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days WIN: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +126) TREND: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 80.0% over 30 days SYSTEM: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +118) WIN: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4.5 @ +240) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3 @ +750) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 2.5 @ +750) 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Totals hitting 80.0% over 30 days RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4 @ +400) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 3.5 @ +450) 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +538.1 units this season 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 79.6% over 30 days 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1218.7 units this season 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +1238.5 units this season RESULT: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +124) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +106) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5 @ +195) 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Spread hitting 79.5% over 30 days RESULT: WON: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ +126) 0.0% EDGE: HOT TREND: MLB Value hitting 80.0% over 30 days 0.0% EDGE: SYSTEM ALPHA: MLB Value is +601.4 units this season RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 5.5 @ +118) RESULT: WON: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (San Francisco Giants 4.5 @ +240)
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Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's AFL Player Props, Ranked by Edge

Every upcoming disposals, goals, marks and fantasy-points prop with the model's true probability and its edge versus the market — so you spot mispriced lines before kick-off. AI reasoning on every pick.

Today's player props

Sorted by edge · prices are a snapshot
Bailey Humphrey Over 0.5 Goals
Probability: 91.3% Edge: 18.8%

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Humphrey, the Gold Coast Suns' sharpshooter, is poised to light up the People First Stadium against Collingwood. Despite a recent dry spell, averaging 0.4 goals in his last five games, Bailey's hunger to snag a goal is undeniable. With an impressive 9.0% goal accuracy and averaging 3 shots on goal per game at home, he's a constant threat. In his last five matchups against Collingwood, Bailey has bagged an average of 0.3 goals, showing he's no stranger to splitting the middle against this opponent. His involvement in scoring plays, with 4.8 score involvements per game, demonstrates his impact beyond just kicking goals. With a model predicting him to hit 1.6 goals and an enticing 18.8% edge, betting on Bailey to snag over 0.5 goals is a smart move with great potential returns.

Errol Gulden Over 21.5 Disposals
Probability: 85.8% Edge: 18.7%

Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans) Over 21.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Errol Gulden stands out as a prime candidate for exceeding the 21.5 disposal line against the Western Bulldogs at the SCG. Over his last five home games, Gulden has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 24 disposals. His recent form showcases a knack for consistently finding the ball, with an impressive 6 contested possessions on average. With his slick 72.4% disposal efficiency and a tendency to cover ground effectively with 395 metres gained per game, Gulden is not just a ball magnet but a quality distributor too. Against the Bulldogs, whom he's averaged 25 disposals in his last five outings, Gulden looks poised to continue his stellar form. With a solid hit rate of 9 out of the last 11 home games, Gulden is primed to snag this bet and split the middle with ease.

Pro members only beyond this point
Unlock 262 more premium prop picks.
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 15.6%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 13.7%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 13.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.0%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.4%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.0%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.4%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.1%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.0%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.0%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.7%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.6%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.5%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.2%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.1%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.0%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.9%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.7%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.5%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.0%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.6%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.5%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.2%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.1%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.9%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.7%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.5%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.4%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.2%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.9%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.5%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.3%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.8%
Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 17.3%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 17.3%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 17.2%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 15.2%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 14.1%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 13.0%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.8%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.6%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.9%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.9%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.8%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.4%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.1%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.7%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.2%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.9%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.7%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.8%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.5%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.2%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.2%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.4%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.4%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.3%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.7%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.5%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.1%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.8%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.1%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
Western Bulldogs at Sydney Swans Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.2%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 17.6%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.3%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 14.5%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.6%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.4%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.6%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.0%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.9%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.9%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.6%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.3%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.8%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.1%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.0%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.5%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.5%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.9%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.9%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.9%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.3%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.0%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.8%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.7%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.7%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.4%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.1%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.7%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.3%
Adelaide Crows at West Coast Eagles Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.2%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 17.1%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.3%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 13.7%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.9%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.5%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.8%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.3%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.2%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.1%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.5%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.4%
Melbourne Demons at Hawthorn Hawks Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.8%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 18.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 18.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 17.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.2%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.2%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 15.1%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 14.2%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 13.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.8%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.0%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.0%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.9%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.8%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.2%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.1%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.2%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.8%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.5%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.8%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.5%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.9%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.7%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.4%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.3%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.1%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.1%
Fremantle Dockers at Greater Western Sydney Giants Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.0%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 14.7%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.7%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.6%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.7%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.2%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.9%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.3%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.6%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.0%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.4%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.1%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.0%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.0%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.0%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.7%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.5%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.3%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.2%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.1%
Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.0%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 18.1%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.4%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.4%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.7%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.9%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.9%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.7%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 5.5%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.9%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.7%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.7%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.6%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.5%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.1%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.9%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.9%
Carlton Blues at Richmond Tigers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.8%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.8%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.6%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.8%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.7%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.3%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.2%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.7%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.0%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.9%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.4%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.5%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.9%
St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 18.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 18.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 16.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 15.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 15.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 13.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 12.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 11.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 10.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 9.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 8.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 7.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 6.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 4.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 3.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 2.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 1.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Port Adelaide Power Prop Bet
Probability: Edge: 0.0%

New to props? Everything below explains how to read them.

Quick answer

What is an AFL player prop bet?

An AFL player prop bet is a wager on an individual player's match statistics rather than the final score. Common markets include disposals, goals, marks and AFL Fantasy points, typically structured as over or under a listed line. Bet Better estimates the true probability of each prop outcome and shows the edge versus bookmaker odds — helping you identify props that may offer value before you place.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL player prop ranked by edge, with probability, best odds and AI reasoning. Click any player name to view their full pick history and profile. For full game picks, use AFL Picks. For the highest-confidence shortlist, use Best Bets.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the prop outcome hits. A 70% probability means the model thinks it succeeds 70 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from posted odds. Positive edge means the model rates the outcome higher than the market is pricing it.

Odds Market

The market price at time of calculation. Odds move throughout the day — always verify at your sportsbook before placing. If odds shorten, your edge shrinks.

AFL player prop markets — what's available?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Disposals Over or under a player's total kicks and handballs. Midfielders in high-disposal roles with consistent output and clear matchup edges.
Goals Whether a forward kicks at least one (or a set number of) goals. Key forwards with strong lead patterns against specific defensive matchups.
Marks Over or under a player's total contested and uncontested marks. Tall forwards and key defenders whose role produces reliable marking volume.
Fantasy Points Over or under a player's combined AFL Fantasy score for the game. Versatile players whose output is consistent across multiple stat categories.

How to read AFL player props in 4 steps

  1. Check probability first. The model's estimated chance the prop hits. Compare this against the implied probability from the odds to judge value independently before reading the edge number.
  2. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model rates the probability higher than the bookmaker's price implies. The larger the positive edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  3. Verify odds before placing. Odds displayed are a snapshot and change as the market moves. A prop that shows +12% edge at $1.85 is meaningless if you're placing at $1.65 — always check your sportsbook.
  4. Read the reasoning. Expand the AI reasoning section for context on why the model rates this prop — matchup factors, role context, recent form signals. Use it as a starting point for your own analysis, not a replacement for it.
Note: Probability and edge are statistical estimates — they do not guarantee outcomes. For the same-game multi version of these props, see AFL Multis. Always bet responsibly and within your limits.
Data first

Probability, edge and odds are shown for every prop — so you evaluate each selection on numbers rather than feel.

AI reasoning

Every prop includes an AI-written reasoning summary covering matchup context, role factors and form signals relevant to the outcome.

Responsible betting

Props are informational only. Betting involves risk. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

AFL Player Props FAQ

Quick answers
What is an AFL player prop bet?

An AFL player prop bet is a wager on an individual player's match statistics — such as disposals, goals, marks or AFL Fantasy points — rather than the game result. Props are typically structured as over or under a bookmaker's listed line, meaning you bet whether the player will exceed or fall short of a specific statistical threshold for that game.

How do probability and edge work on this page?

Probability is Bet Better's model-estimated chance the prop outcome hits, expressed as a percentage. Edge is the difference between that probability and the implied probability derived from the bookmaker's decimal odds — a positive edge indicates the model rates the outcome more likely than the market price implies. Higher positive edge can signal better value, but it does not guarantee a win; all betting involves variance.

What are the most common AFL player prop markets?

The most common AFL player prop markets are disposals (over/under total kicks and handballs), goals (whether a player scores one or more), marks (over/under contested and uncontested marks), and AFL Fantasy points (over/under combined fantasy score). Some bookmakers also offer combination props such as 25-plus disposals and a goal, or player milestone markets.

Can I use AFL player props in a Same Game Multi?

Yes — most Australian sportsbooks allow player props as legs in a Same Game Multi for AFL. Bet Better focuses on individual prop value, which you can combine based on your own risk preference and the SGM odds offered by your bookmaker. For model-ranked multi recommendations with combined probability shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Can I view a team's full player prop history?

Yes. Click any team name on a prop card to go to that team's profile page, which includes their upcoming game pick, today's player props, model performance history, and a full player directory. Team profiles are updated automatically as new props are generated each week.

Can I view a player's full pick history?

Yes. Click any player name on a prop card to view their individual profile, which shows their latest pick, model probability and edge, AI reasoning, and their complete track record of past picks with results. Player profiles are a useful reference for assessing model consistency on a specific player over time.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL player props will win?

No. AFL player props are statistical predictions intended to inform betting decisions — no outcome is guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk, and even high-probability props fail a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.