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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 25, 10:00AM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees and backs Over 9.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $410.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 8:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +310

The model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $410 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 25 Sep 2026, 8:05PM at Yankee Stadium.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win33.1%
The price says24.4%
Best price+310
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Long-shot33% chance +310
Total Runs Members only Long-shot29% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot11% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean49% chance Members
Batter - Doubles × 2 props Highup to 74% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 13 props Leanup to 46% Members
Batter - RBIs × 15 props Leanup to 44% Members
Batter - Walks × 2 props Long-shotup to 28% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Leanup to 50% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 1 prop Leanup to 57% Members
Batter - Singles × 2 props Highup to 70% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - Hits × 3 props Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 1 prop Highup to 70% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Baltimore Orioles are the model's favourite to beat New York Yankees, with a 51% chance to win. Predicted score: New York Yankees 4.7 – Baltimore Orioles 4.1. Kick-off Fri 25 Sep, 8:05PM at Yankee Stadium. Best bet: Over 9.5 at +310.
How they've been scoring this season
Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Won-lost78-8192-67
Runs scored per game4.44.6
Runs allowed per game4.63.7
On the road / at home39-39 away45-33 at home
Last 5 gamesLLWWWLWLWW
Their games average 8.7 total runs this season.
From the 159 Baltimore Orioles and 159 New York Yankees games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 47 bookmakers compared
Winner
Orioles2.33+133Kalshi
Yankees1.78-1281xBet
Total runs
Over6.51.93-1081xBet
Under6.52.00+100Bovada

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees odds by bookmaker

47 books · best price in green
BookOrioles winYankees winYankees -1.5Over 6.5Under 6.5
1xBet2.18+1181.78-1282.78+1781.93-1081.99-101
888sport2.15+1151.71-141—1.80-1252.00+100
Bally Bet2.12+1121.74-1352.55+1551.82-1222.00+100
BetAnySports2.27+1271.70-1432.67+1671.87-1151.95-105
BetMGM2.15+1151.71-1412.70+1701.87-1151.95-105
BetOnline2.23+1231.74-1352.72+1721.87-1151.95-105
betPARX2.12+1121.74-1352.55+1551.82-1222.00+100
BetRivers2.12+1121.75-1332.55+1551.82-1222.00+100
Bovada2.15+1151.72-1392.75+1751.83-1202.00+100
Coolbet2.12+1121.73-137—1.85-1181.96-104
DraftKings2.19+1191.70-1432.69+1691.87-1151.95-105
ESPN BET2.20+1201.71-1412.75+1751.87-1151.95-105
Fanatics2.15+1151.71-1412.70+1701.87-1151.95-105
FanDuel2.14+1141.75-1332.80+1801.88-1141.94-106

Since the market opened: Yankees to win opened 1.70, best now 1.78; the over 6.5 opened 1.86, best now 1.94 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 101 of 171 right (mlb pitcher outs unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 25
Nick Pivetta Under 14.5
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $181
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
10
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,915+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Baltimore Orioles on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Baltimore Orioles
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Baltimore Orioles
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Kyle Bradish SPOut
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Jackson Holliday 2BOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

New York Yankees

  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut

Probable pitcher

Cam Schlittler SP
Availability updated Sep 24, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 25 Sep

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Picks, September 25, 2026

On September 25, 2026 our model has run Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Over 4.5 Total Runs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-204). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Over 5 Total Runs (-270)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Over 5 Total Runs (-270). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: New York Yankees -1.5 (+180)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: New York Yankees -1.5 (+180). That is a spreads bet. It was priced at +180 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Over 4.5 Total Runs (-345)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Over 4.5 Total Runs (-345). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 25 Sep

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 25, 2026

On September 25, 2026 our 2-leg same game parlay for Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LEAN confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Amed Rosario (WSN) Under 0.5 Hits (+113)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Amed Rosario (WSN) Under 0.5 Hits (+113). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +113 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Under 0.5 Singles (-145)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Under 0.5 Singles (-145). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Pete Alonso NYM Batter - Doubles
Dylan Beavers BAL Batter - Doubles
Ben Rice Batter - Total Bases
Pete Alonso NYM Batter - Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesOver 9 +269
8.8proj. runs
L5 RF5.6L5 RA4.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

New York Yankees total runs vs Baltimore Orioles is live and our model makes it 37% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.8.

Run LineNew York Yankees run line-4.5 +750
+0.6proj. margin
L5 RF5.6L5 RA4.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

New York Yankees spread vs Baltimore Orioles is live and our model makes it 11% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin +0.6.

MoneylineNew York Yankees to win-133
2-3L5 record
L5 RF5.6L5 RA4.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1Free board25-22

New York Yankees moneyline vs Baltimore Orioles is live and our model makes it 49% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 2-3.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
4.5runs we expect
L5 RF5.6L5 RA4.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 5.6 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–4TBHome
W9–2TBHome
L1–6TBHome
W2–0TBHome
L3–5ARIAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2TORHome
W4–2TORHome
W4–3TORHome
L0–3MILHome
L0–1MILHome

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 5.6 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 3.4 (2-3); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for Baltimore Orioles.

5.6
New York Yankees runs/G
3.4
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game5.63.4
Hits / game8.47.0
Home runs / game2.41.2
Walks drawn / game4.03.2
Batter K / game11.210.0
Earned runs allowed / game4.23.2
Pitching K / game10.010.6
Walks allowed / game2.84.0
L5 record2-32-3

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Yankees won 8, Baltimore Orioles won 2.

DateNew York YankeesBaltimore OriolesWinner
Aug 2061New York Yankees
Aug 1953New York Yankees
Aug 1831New York Yankees
May 1307Baltimore Orioles
May 1262New York Yankees
May 1123Baltimore Orioles
May 4121New York Yankees
May 3113New York Yankees
May 294New York Yankees
May 172New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Kyle Bradish SPOUT
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Jackson Holliday 2BOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Luis Robert Jr. CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees — where the money went

Since betting opened on Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, the market has moved away from Baltimore Orioles across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Baltimore Orioles▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — New York Yankees▲ Money came for this
Spread — Baltimore Orioles -1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Yankees -1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Baltimore Orioles 1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New York Yankees -1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Yankees 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 6.5▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees — model preview

Our Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees prediction for September 25, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 25, 2026 our model has run Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Over 4.5 Total Runs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Orioles. The next scheduled game is Friday 25 September 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
New York Yankees 32–26 across the last 58 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
20 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles1–6New York Yankees
19 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles3–5New York Yankees
18 Aug 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles1–3New York Yankees
13 May 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles7–0Baltimore Orioles
12 May 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles2–6New York Yankees
11 May 2026New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
4 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees12–1New York Yankees
3 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees11–3New York Yankees
2 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees9–4New York Yankees
1 May 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees7–2New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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