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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 28 Sep 2025, 7:05PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 1.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees (MLB), model win probability 98.3%, fair odds 1.02, book price -500, model edge +16.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 28 Sep 2025, 7:05PM at Yankee Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Adley Rutschman BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Judge NYY Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Caballero TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L55-0Win rec4-12

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L55-0ATS5-13

New York Yankees spread form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
2.9implied team total
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L55-0

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.2 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game3.24.0
Hits / game7.85.6
Home runs / game1.22.2
Walks drawn / game3.42.8
Batter K / game9.68.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.25.4
Pitching K / game6.05.4
Walks allowed / game3.63.6
L5 record2-33-2

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles. Includes analysis on key players like Adley Rutschman. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.</p>

Adley Rutschman (BAL) Over 0.5 Hits (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Adley Rutschman for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Rutschman's L5 Away Hits Average is 0.8, which is higher than his overall L5 Hits Average of 0.4. This suggests that he performs better when playing away. Furthermore, his L5 Away PA Average is 5, which indicates that he gets more opportunities to hit when playing away. Although his current hit streak is 0, his L5 Away Hits Average of 1.2 and L5 vs Opp PA Average of 4.4 suggest that he has a high likelihood of getting a hit in the upcoming game against the New York Yankees. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on Rutschman for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a statistically sound decision.

Adley Rutschman (BAL) Over 0.5 Hits (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Adley Rutschman's performance data indicates a strong rationale for betting on Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Alternate market. Even though Rutschman's overall current hit streak is at zero, his batting average away from home is notably higher. His last five away games show an average of 0.8 to 1.2 hits per game, exceeding the line of 0.5. Additionally, his plate appearances (PA) during away games average between 4.2 and 5, giving him ample opportunities to hit. Despite a lower hit average against the Yankees specifically, Rutschman's strong away performance and high number of plate appearances make a compelling case for a bet on Over 0.5. This bet is further supported by the model's implied probability of 62.1%, indicating a favourable chance of success.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-217)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Aaron Judge for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is statistically sound. Judge's recent performance data indicates a strong likelihood of him hitting over 0.5. His L5 overall hits average is 1.8, indicating he typically gets at least one hit per game. His L5 home hits average is even higher at 2, showing he performs well when playing at home. Furthermore, his L5 hits average against the Orioles is 1.2, suggesting he has a track record of hitting successfully against this team. Finally, Judge is on a 4-game hitting streak both overall and at home, demonstrating his current form is excellent. Thus, the data suggests a high probability of Judge achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 4.5 alternate_team_totals (+100)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'New York Yankees Under 4.5' for the Team Total Runs is a good choice considering the Yankees' recent performance. Over their last five games, the Yankees have averaged only 3.2 runs overall and 4 runs at home. This suggests a struggle in their offensive performance, making it less likely they will exceed the 4.5 run line. Additionally, their batting average is relatively low with 7.8 hits overall and 7 hits at home in their last five games. On the other side, the Orioles have allowed an average of 4.2 runs in their last five away games, suggesting a decent defensive performance. This combination of the Yankees' offensive struggles and Orioles' decent away defense supports the 'Under 4.5' bet.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 2.5 alternate_team_totals (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'New York Yankees Over 2.5' for the Team Total Runs is a solid choice based on their recent performance and the Orioles' defensive weaknesses. The Yankees have been scoring an average of 4 runs in their last five home games, exceeding the 2.5 run line. Their batting average of 7.8 hits per game also suggests a strong offensive performance. On the other hand, the Orioles have been struggling defensively, allowing an average of 5.8 runs in their last five games overall and 4.2 runs in their away games. This indicates a higher possibility for the Yankees to score more than 2.5 runs. Furthermore, the Orioles' pitchers have been giving up an average of 3.6 walks per game, providing additional scoring opportunities for the Yankees. Therefore, the statistical data supports the bet on the Yankees scoring over 2.5 runs.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 2.5 alternate_team_totals (-476)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The New York Yankees' performance at home makes a compelling case for betting on 'Over 2.5' for Team Total Runs. Their recent record at home stands at 4-1, with an average of 4 runs scored per game, which is significantly above the line of 2.5. Furthermore, their batting average at home is a respectable 7 hits per game. The Baltimore Orioles' pitching has been less than stellar, allowing an average of 5.8 runs per game overall and 4.2 runs while playing away. This indicates a higher likelihood of the Yankees scoring more than 2.5 runs. Hence, considering the Yankees' strong home performance and the Orioles' struggling pitching, betting on the Yankees to score over 2.5 runs is statistically justified.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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