Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Waterman is in the kind of form that makes a 1.5-goal line look genuinely thin. At Optus Stadium across his last five home games, he's averaging 3.4 goals on 5.2 shots at goal with a 71.5% accuracy rate and 3.2 marks inside 50 — numbers that paint the picture of a forward who is both getting into the game and converting cleanly. He's cleared this exact line in seven consecutive home appearances, and the model projects 2.2 goals against a line of 1.5, which reflects a meaningful gap between what Waterman is likely to produce and what the bookmaker is asking you to beat. The model edge is slim at 0.1%, so this isn't a screaming overlay, but the underlying home context is hard to ignore. His L5 home goal accuracy of 71.5% versus 54.4% overall tells you Optus Stadium is where he does his best work. At $1.48, there's genuine value here.

Jack Williams (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (-137)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Williams shapes as a solid play to kick at least one goal at Optus Stadium on Sunday. The model has him projecting 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 6.2% edge over the implied probability of 57.8% — meaningful value at $1.73. His L5 home record shows he's averaging 0.6 goals with a shot at goal per game and a 40% conversion rate, which is modest, but the 2/3 hit rate in his last three home games demonstrates he's finding the big sticks consistently enough. More compelling is his L5 record against Hawthorn specifically — averaging a goal per game — and his broader L5 overall figures look sharper still: 1.2 goals, two shots at goal, and a 53.3% accuracy rate across all venues. With a score involvement average of 4.2 and 1.2 marks inside 50, Williams is generating genuine forward opportunities. The home crowd and familiar conditions only help his case.

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (-139)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The model has Reid at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 4.2% edge at $1.72 — implying 58.1% probability where the model sees a meaningfully higher chance of him finding the big sticks. At home in Perth over his last five games, Reid is averaging 2.8 shots at goal and 4.6 inside-50 entries, which is the volume profile you want when targeting a 0.5 goals line. His L5 home goal accuracy sits at 24%, and with nearly three shots per game, the conversion math works in your favour more often than not. The concern is his L5 home goals average of just 0.4 and a 0% hit rate against Hawthorn at home specifically, so this isn't a slam dunk. But the shot volume is genuine, the model edge is real, and home conditions at Optus Stadium support the case. Worth a measured play.

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