Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Cole is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 52%, implied 45%, edge +15.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:20PM UTC
AFL
Tom Cole
West Coast Eagles
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
+120 (2.20) · $100→$220
+15.8% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks
@
West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
61 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 61.2% · the book's price implies 45.5% · gap +15.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 61.2% | 52.4% | 45.5% | 1.91 | +15.8% |
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Tom Cole (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (+120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Tom Cole represents genuine value at $2.20 to kick at least one goal at Optus Stadium on Sunday. The model projects him at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 15.8% edge over the implied probability of 45.5% — that's a meaningful gap worth acting on. His overall L5 hit rate of 3/4 and a current one-game streak show he's finding the big sticks with reasonable consistency, and his home L5 average of 0.6 goals aligns closely with the model's projection.
The concern worth flagging is his head-to-head record against Hawthorn — averaging zero goals in recent matchups — but his home shot-at-goal average of 1.4 and score involvement average of 4.2 suggest he's getting into positions to threaten. With a 20% goal accuracy at home, he needs his chances to fall right, but the model sees enough here to back the edge at a juicy price.
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Season averages (2024)
Tom Cole averaged 15.6 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Tom Cole recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 13 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 Aug 24 | Carlton | 12 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 10 Aug 24 | North Melbourne | 16 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 Aug 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 14 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Fremantle | 26 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 20 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 21 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 22 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 30 Jun 24 | Hawthorn | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Essendon | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Tom Cole (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Cole is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.8% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 23 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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