Tom Cole (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (+120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Tom Cole represents genuine value at $2.20 to kick at least one goal at Optus Stadium on Sunday. The model projects him at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 15.8% edge over the implied probability of 45.5% — that's a meaningful gap worth acting on. His overall L5 hit rate of 3/4 and a current one-game streak show he's finding the big sticks with reasonable consistency, and his home L5 average of 0.6 goals aligns closely with the model's projection.
The concern worth flagging is his head-to-head record against Hawthorn — averaging zero goals in recent matchups — but his home shot-at-goal average of 1.4 and score involvement average of 4.2 suggest he's getting into positions to threaten. With a 20% goal accuracy at home, he needs his chances to fall right, but the model sees enough here to back the edge at a juicy price.