Today's Top MLS Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 10/16

As SC Freiburg heads to Bayer Leverkusen, all eyes should be on Philipp Lienhart, a defender who might just surprise us with his attacking intent. While the stats show he’s averaged only 0.4 shots away, the tactical landscape of this matchup suggests he could exceed that modest output. Leverkusen's aggressive style typically invites opponents to push forward, creating opportunities for defenders to join the attack. Given Lienhart's role in set pieces, he could find himself in positions to shoot, especially if Freiburg aims to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the home side. Though his recent hit rate isn’t stellar, the backdrop of this game, with Leverkusen likely dominating possession, could see Lienhart sneak in a few attempts. With the line set at just 1.5 shots, taking the over feels like a savvy move for those looking to capitalize on a potential uptick in his offensive involvement.

Gideon Mensah (FC Cologne) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+900)

As we dive into Friday’s clash between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln, all eyes should be on Gideon Mensah, especially in the shots-on-target market. Though his recent form shows an average of just 0.4 away shots, there are compelling reasons to believe he’ll break through. Frankfurt's defensive setup has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against attacking full-backs. Mensah, known for his overlapping runs, could exploit those gaps. Given Köln's need to push for points, there's a chance Mensah will find himself in advanced positions more often than usual. This context suggests that even if he hasn't hit the target lately, the odds are in our favor for him to register at least one shot on goal.

Phil Foden (Manchester City) Yes To Be Carded (+1800)

As Manchester City hosts Ipswich Town, all eyes will be on Phil Foden, who may seem like an unlikely candidate for a card, but hear me out. The young midfielder has a knack for getting stuck in, and despite his overall yellow card average being just 0.2, this game has a different vibe. Playing at home, Foden's hit rate stands at one in three, showing he’s not afraid to challenge when the stakes are high. With Ipswich’s aggressive style likely to draw fouls, Foden could find himself in situations where he needs to defend tenaciously. At a generous price, betting on him to receive a card might just be the hidden gem you’re looking for this weekend.

Jordy Makengo (Freiburg) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+3000)

In this intriguing Bundesliga clash, all eyes should be on Jordy Makengo as SC Freiburg heads to face Bayer Leverkusen. While his recent form may not scream goals—averaging just 0.4 shots per game overall and 0.2 on the road—there’s a compelling narrative at play. Leverkusen’s defensive lapses have gifted visiting teams opportunities, and they often leave gaping holes that an agile forward like Makengo can exploit. His ability to find space, combined with Freiburg’s tendency to play on the counter, creates a ripe environment for a surprise goal. Plus, sometimes the numbers don’t tell the whole story; a player can awaken at any moment, especially under pressure. At a lofty price, betting on Makengo to score could just pay off in a thrilling encounter where unpredictability reigns. Keep your eyes peeled—this may be the moment he breaks through!

Marc Bartra (Real Betis) Over 0.5 Assists (+2700)

As Real Betis gears up to host Barcelona, all eyes will be on Marc Bartra, and here’s why I’m leaning towards him for Over 0.5 assists. Although his recent stats show a dry spell with no assists in his last five matches, playing at home against a high-caliber opponent like Barcelona could spark a change. Bartra's ability to break lines and deliver key passes can’t be overlooked—especially as Betis seeks to exploit Barcelona’s occasionally shaky defense. Historically, teams have found their groove at home, and with the crowd behind them, Bartra might just rise to the occasion. While his current hit rate may not scream confidence, the unpredictability of football means his potential for a surprise assist is very much alive. Given the stakes of this clash, I believe Bartra can seize the moment and net that elusive assist. Let’s take a chance on him to deliver in front of the home fans!

That is the model's read on today's MLS card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.