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Model picks & player props
NHL
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 29 Sep 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Montréal Canadiens
VS
Toronto Maple Leafs

Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 21 markets for Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs and backs Montréal Canadiens hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $196.

20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Montréal Canadiens
to win
Montréal Canadiens Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$19.62Best price-104
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.8%
The price says49.0%

The model graded 21 markets for Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $196 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 29 Sep 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Montréal Canadiens Lean60% chance -104
Spread Members only High80% chance Members
3-Way Moneyline Members only Lean49% chance Members
Puck Lines Members only High80% chance Members
1st Period Total Goals Members only High60% chance Members
Total Goals Members only Long-shot33% chance Members
1st Period Puck Line Members only Long-shot40% chance Members
1st Period 3-Way Moneyline Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
1st Period Puck Lines Members only Long-shot15% chance Members
Anytime Goal × 1 prop Long-shotup to 7% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NHL game on today's board →

Montréal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs last met on Tue 29 Sep 2026: Montréal Canadiens won 3-2. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NHL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Montréal Canadiens
-104
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Montréal CanadiensMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal Canadiens3-Way MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over1st Period Total GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal Canadiens1st Period Puck LineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal Canadiens1st Period 3-Way MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal Canadiens1st Period Puck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal Canadiens1st Period MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over1st Period Total GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Montréal CanadiensPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Montréal Canadiens

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • John Tavares COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut
  • Miles Wood LWOut
  • Chris Tanev DOut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Cade Webber DOut
  • Elvis Merzlikins GOut
  • William Villeneuve DOut
Availability updated Oct 17, 8:19PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 8 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability8 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Arber Xhekaj Montreal Canadiens Anytime Goal

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Montréal CanadiensNo line posted

Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineMontréal Canadiens -1.5No line posted

Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs — recent results

Toronto Maple Leafs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Montréal Canadiens have won 0 of their last 0.

Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4NYIHome
L4–5BUFHome
L4–5UTAAway
W6–3COLAway
L3–4VGKAway

Who’s out or in doubt

8 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
John Tavares COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT
Miles Wood LWOUT
Chris Tanev DOUT
Max Domi COUT
Cade Webber DOUT
Elvis Merzlikins GOUT
William Villeneuve DOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs — model preview

Toronto Maple Leafs v Montréal Canadiens, 29 September 2026. Top of the list: Montréal Canadiens +2.5. Our model likes 3 bets in this game.

On Tuesday 29 September 2026, Toronto Maple Leafs play Montréal Canadiens in the NHL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Montréal Canadiens +2.5, priced at -526 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montréal Canadiens: Montréal Canadiens +2.5 (-526)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Toronto Maple Leafs play Montréal Canadiens in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Montréal Canadiens +2.5. That is a Spread bet. It was priced at -526 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Canadiens vs Leafs, or as Leafs vs Canadiens. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 29 September 2026 at Scotiabank Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs head-to-head record

Final scores · 4 meetings on record
Montréal Canadiens 4–0 across the last 4 meetings · these games average 5.3 goals

Last meeting: Tue 29 Sep 2026, Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs: the Canadiens won 3-2.

DateGameScoreWinner
29 Sep 2026Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs2–3Montréal Canadiens
19 Sep 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montréal Canadiens4–3Montréal Canadiens
19 Sep 2026Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs1–4Montréal Canadiens
10 Mar 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montréal Canadiens3–1Montréal Canadiens

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