Today's Top EPL Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 09/11 (Ibrahim Mbaye Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

As the New York Red Bulls gear up to face Columbus Crew SC, Robert Voloder presents an intriguing opportunity for those looking to cash in on the player total shots market. While his recent overall and away shot averages might seem modest—sitting at 0.4 away—there’s a compelling narrative here. Columbus tends to open up defensively, especially against teams that play with pace, and Voloder's ability to exploit those gaps could be key. The Crew’s relentless attacking style often leads to a flurry of chances, which bodes well for Voloder to get involved. With a model edge of over 16%, the expectation is that he’ll surpass that 0.5 shots mark, especially considering the Red Bulls will likely need to push forward to compete. This match could be the perfect stage for Voloder to find his rhythm, so keep an eye on him to pull the trigger at least once.

Daniel Lovitz (Nashville SC) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+1100)

In a matchup where Nashville SC faces Inter Miami CF, Daniel Lovitz presents an intriguing opportunity for a shot on target. While his recent numbers might suggest otherwise—averaging just 0.2 shots on target away—there’s more to consider. The stakes are high for Nashville, and Lovitz, often overlooked, could find himself in a position to capitalize on Miami’s defensive lapses. In their last few outings, Nashville has been aggressive in pushing forward, which could create openings for Lovitz to sneak into the box. The home team’s tendency to concede shots from the flanks further elevates the likelihood of Lovitz breaking through. With the odds favoring the underdog narrative—his shot on target line sits at a compelling 0.5—it’s not just a bet on numbers; it’s a wager on Lovitz's potential to step up in a crucial away game. Don’t be surprised if he surprises.

Robert Voloder (New York Red Bulls) Over 1.5 Shots (+1800)

As the New York Red Bulls head to Columbus, Robert Voloder is poised for a breakthrough performance that could defy the odds. While his recent away stats might suggest otherwise—averaging just 0.4 shots per game—there's reason to believe he can push past the 1.5 mark today. The Crew's defense has been known to leave gaps, especially when pressing high, which could offer Voloder those crucial opportunities to unleash a shot or two. Moreover, with the Red Bulls often relying on a dynamic attacking approach, Voloder's role could expand significantly. Even though he hasn't hit this target lately, the implied probability suggests a solid chance he could find the back of the net, or at least make an attempt. With an energized away crowd and the stakes of an MLS clash, this could be the match where Voloder finds his rhythm and breaks out. Place your bets on the over!

Jeisson Palacios (Nashville SC) Over 0.5 Assists (+2200)

In the upcoming clash between Inter Miami CF and Nashville SC, Jeisson Palacios could quietly emerge as a pivotal playmaker, particularly for the assists market. While his recent form shows an overall average of just 0.2 assists per game, the context of this match suggests an opportunity for him to break through. Miami’s attacking style could open spaces for Palacios, especially considering Nashville's defensive vulnerabilities. Though he hasn’t registered an assist away yet, his ability to create chances shouldn't be overlooked. With the match expected to be competitive, any increased pressure on Nashville’s backline could allow Palacios to slip in a crucial pass or two. His current hit rate may not scream confidence, but sometimes a player's potential can shine in unexpected moments. Embracing the Over 0.5 assists for Palacios feels like a smart bet—one that capitalizes on both opportunity and circumstance.

Semi Ajayi (Hull City) Over 2.5 Shots (+2200)

As Hull City gears up to face Chelsea, all eyes should be on Semi Ajayi for a sneaky player prop bet on total shots. While Ajayi’s recent numbers might not scream ‘goal-scoring threat’, there’s a unique twist to this matchup that makes the Over 2.5 shots line intriguing. Chelsea’s high defensive line often invites pressure, and with Ajayi’s knack for getting forward, he could find himself in more attacking positions. Even though he’s averaged only 0.2 shots in his last five outings, the context matters. Hull may find themselves defending for long stretches, leading to more opportunities for Ajayi to take a shot or two when they do break. If he can find himself at least a couple of chances, he might just surprise us. Given Chelsea's porous defense at times, this could be the perfect game for Ajayi to surpass that shot mark—so don’t sleep on this one!

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.