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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for James Tarkowski is Over 2.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 7 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 7%, implied 4%, edge +3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 27, 3:32AM UTC
Soccer

James Tarkowski

Burnley

+3.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 2.5 +2200 (23.00) · $100→$2,300
+3.1% Edge
Everton @ Bournemouth
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 2:00PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
7 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 7.4% · the book's price implies 4.3% · gap +3.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots7.4%4.3%13.51+3.1%

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AI Analysis

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James Tarkowski (Everton) Over 2.5 Shots (+2200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Everton heads to Bournemouth, all eyes should be on James Tarkowski in the Player Total Shots market. While his recent averages may not scream volumes—averaging just 1.2 shots overall and 0.8 away—there’s more to the story. Tarkowski’s role as a center-back doesn’t just confine him to defensive duties; he often ventures forward during set pieces, presenting opportunities to test the keeper. Even though his recent away performance saw him hit the target just twice, he's shown a spark with a current hit streak. Bournemouth's shaky defense might just be the catalyst he needs to exceed that 2.5 shots threshold. The model hints at a slight edge here, but the real magic lies in Tarkowski’s potential to capitalize on set-piece situations. This matchup could be the moment he breaks out of his shell, making the Over on his shots an enticing play.

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Pick History & Track Record

James Tarkowski — 2024 season

James Tarkowski scored 0 goals with 0 assists in 5 Premier League appearances for Everton in the 2024 season, from 3 shots (0 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.4.

0
Goals
0
Assists
0.4
xG
3
Shots
0
On target
0
Key passes
5
Apps
449
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

James Tarkowski (Burnley) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Tarkowski is Over 2.5 on Shots. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Everton vs Bournemouth on Saturday 29 August at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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