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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brandon Williams is Under 16.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +12.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NBA

Brandon Williams

Dallas Mavericks

+12.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 16.5 -130 (1.77)
+12.2% Edge
Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 6 Mar, 12:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
68.7%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+12.2%
Predicted Value
13.1 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs68.7%—56.5%1.45+12.2%

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AI Analysis

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Brandon Williams (Dallas Mavericks) Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Brandon Williams and his Dallas Mavericks gear up to hit the road against the Orlando Magic this Friday, I'm eyeing an intriguing prop bet on the table. The Mavericks' guard is showing an under 16.5 for points plus rebounds, which is an interesting position considering his track record.Williams has been carrying a somewhat lackluster average of 13.4 points combined with a meager 1.6 rebounds in his last five overall games. The away court, while often a stumbling block, hasn't boosted his performance enough to worry about, with averages of 17.4 points and 2.2 rebounds in his last five on the road. But here's the kicker - against the Magic, his numbers have dipped even further, averaging only 8 points and 2 rebounds. Even on the Magic's home court, he hasn't surpassed 14 points and 3 rebounds. So, while a good night from Williams is always possible, the stats suggest he might

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
3.8avg · last 10
L53.6Szn2.5Home2.1Away3.0Best12
1+69%
3+46%
5+26%
7+6%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 3.8 · hi 7 · lo 0
2543633057

Brandon Williams is averaging 3.8 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.5, best 12). He clears 3+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
15.4avg · last 10
L514.2Szn10.5Home8.7Away12.5Best36
1+86%
6+57%
11+49%
16+34%
21+11%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 15.4 · hi 23 · lo 4
1310202317131841719

Brandon Williams is averaging 15.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.5, best 36). He clears 11+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
19.2avg · last 10
L517.8Szn13.1Home10.7Away15.5Best42
3+83%
8+57%
13+51%
18+34%
23+26%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 19.2 · hi 26 · lo 4
1515242623162142226

Brandon Williams is averaging 19.2 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.1, best 42). He clears 13+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.1avg · last 10
L50.6Szn0.7Home0.6Away0.8Best4
1+49%
2+20%
3+3%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.1 · hi 2 · lo 0
1212211001

Brandon Williams is averaging 1.1 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.7, best 4). He clears 1+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Feb 26 Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Steals 1.5 Over +400 ✗ MISS
28 Feb 26 Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Assists 1.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Brandon Williams (Dallas Mavericks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brandon Williams is Under 16.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic on Friday 6 March at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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