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Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
Washington Nationals

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 26 markets for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals and backs Under 5.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $480.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 8:05PM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 5.5 Total Runs +380

The model graded 26 markets for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $480 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 8:05PM at Nationals Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win29.7%
The price says20.8%
Best price+380
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 5.5 Long-shot30% chance +380
Spread Members only Long-shot24% chance Members
Total Runs Members only High67% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only High64% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean58% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only High64% chance Members
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 80% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals last met on Sat 25 Jul 2026: Washington Nationals won 10-7. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 6 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,586+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Gabriel Moreno CDay-to-day
  • Tyler Locklear 1BOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Washington Nationals

  • Matt Waldron RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Orlando Ribalta RPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
Availability updated Sep 28, 7:18PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Gabriel Moreno TOR Batter - Total Bases
Dylan Crews Batter - Total Bases
Geraldo Perdomo ARI Batter - Total Bases
Curtis Mead Batter - Total Bases
Corbin Carroll Batter - Total Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.0Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L51-4

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.0Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L51-4

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
3.8runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.0Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L51-4

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games; Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–4NYMHome
L1–7NYMHome
W7–6NYMHome
W4–2DETAway
W3–1DETAway
Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–10SDAway
L4–9SDAway
W11–4SDAway
W5–3COLAway
W12–8COLAway

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Washington Nationals won 4, Arizona Diamondbacks won 2.

DateWashington NationalsArizona DiamondbacksWinner
Jul 26107Washington Nationals
Jul 2553Washington Nationals
Jul 2423Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 715Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 6141Washington Nationals
Jun 661Washington Nationals

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Matt Waldron RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Orlando Ribalta RPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Ken Waldichuk RPOUT
Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Gabriel Moreno CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler Locklear 1BOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Nolan Arenado. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks stats and odds.

Nolan Arenado (STL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nationals host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Nolan Arenado, but the numbers might not be in his favor for this matchup. While Arenado is undoubtedly talented, he’s been running into challenges lately, batting just .220 against right-handed pitching over the past month. The Diamondbacks’ starter, a crafty righty known for his ability to induce weak contact, is particularly effective at neutralizing left-handed bats like Arenado. Moreover, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has been on a roll, boasting an impressive 2.80 ERA in the last two weeks, making late-game heroics unlikely. Considering that Arenado averages around one total base in similar matchups, betting the under on his total bases seems prudent. With a projected outcome of just under one total base, this bet leans into the current trends, making the under a compelling play as the Nationals look to stifle Arenado's impact at the plate.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Diamondbacks vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Diamondbacks. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Arizona Diamondbacks 14–10 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 10.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 26 Jul 2026, Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: the Nationals won 10-7.

DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals10–7Washington Nationals
25 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals5–3Washington Nationals
24 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals2–3Arizona Diamondbacks
7 Jun 2026Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks5–1Arizona Diamondbacks
6 Jun 2026Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–6Washington Nationals
5 Jun 2026Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–14Washington Nationals
1 Jun 2025Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks3–1Arizona Diamondbacks
31 May 2025Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks7–11Washington Nationals
30 May 2025Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks7–9Washington Nationals
6 Apr 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals5–4Washington Nationals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

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