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Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
Washington Nationals

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 13, 8:33AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 8:05PM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
66.7%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 9.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 26 markets for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 66.7% across 33 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 62.9%, fair odds 1.59, book price -110, model edge +10.5%. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 8:05PM at Nationals Park.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 9.5 · $100 returned $188

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 619 of 1,194 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 13
Under 6.5
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $343
Our call on this game: 1 pick on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
9
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Drey Jameson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Merrill Kelly SP

Washington Nationals

  • James Wood RFOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jackson Kent SP
Availability updated Aug 12, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Gabriel Moreno TOR Batter - Total Bases
Dylan Crews Batter - Total Bases
Geraldo Perdomo ARI Batter - Total Bases
Curtis Mead Batter - Total Bases
Corbin Carroll Batter - Total Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 3 of their last 5 games; Arizona Diamondbacks have won 2 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–12CHCHome
L6–8CHCHome
W7–1CINHome
W8–2CINHome
W5–3CINHome
Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3COLHome
L4–6COLHome
W9–0COLHome
L1–2LADHome
W4–2LADHome

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Washington Nationals won 4, Arizona Diamondbacks won 2.

DateWashington NationalsArizona DiamondbacksWinner
Jul 26107Washington Nationals
Jul 2553Washington Nationals
Jul 2423Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 715Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 661Washington Nationals
Jun 6141Washington Nationals

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
James Wood RFOUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Justin Martinez RPOUT
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Jordan Lawlar LFOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOUT
Drey Jameson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Nolan Arenado. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks stats and odds.

Nolan Arenado (STL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nationals host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Nolan Arenado, but the numbers might not be in his favor for this matchup. While Arenado is undoubtedly talented, he’s been running into challenges lately, batting just .220 against right-handed pitching over the past month. The Diamondbacks’ starter, a crafty righty known for his ability to induce weak contact, is particularly effective at neutralizing left-handed bats like Arenado. Moreover, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has been on a roll, boasting an impressive 2.80 ERA in the last two weeks, making late-game heroics unlikely. Considering that Arenado averages around one total base in similar matchups, betting the under on his total bases seems prudent. With a projected outcome of just under one total base, this bet leans into the current trends, making the under a compelling play as the Nationals look to stifle Arenado's impact at the plate.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
33
Total Picks
66.7%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Spread Washington Nationals -3.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Washington Nationals ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -3.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -2.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Washington Nationals -0.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Washington Nationals -2.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Spread Washington Nationals -1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 5.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Moneyline Washington Nationals ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Spread Washington Nationals -2 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Diamondbacks vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Diamondbacks. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 66.7% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Washington Nationals 4–2 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals10–7Washington Nationals
25 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals5–3Washington Nationals
24 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals2–3Arizona Diamondbacks
7 Jun 2026Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks5–1Arizona Diamondbacks
6 Jun 2026Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–14Washington Nationals
6 Jun 2026Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–6Washington Nationals
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