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The latest Bet Better model pick for Curtis Mead is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:11AM UTC
MLB

Curtis Mead

TBR

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -179 (1.56)
+6.9% Edge
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.0%—64.1%1.41+6.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Curtis Mead (TBR) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nationals host the Yankees on Sunday, eyes will be on Curtis Mead, who’s been navigating a tough stretch. Although he’s shown flashes of brilliance, the numbers against elite pitching tell a different story. Facing a Yankees rotation that features a mix of power arms and crafty veterans, Mead may struggle to find his rhythm. The Yankees have been dominant lately, boasting one of the best bullpens in the league, which doesn’t bode well for any opposing hitters looking to capitalize late in the game. Additionally, Mead’s recent performance has dipped, with fewer extra-base hits and an increase in strikeouts. Given the Yankees’ ability to neutralize threats, and with Mead likely to see tough matchups, it’s hard to envision him exceeding the 1.5 total bases mark. With implied probabilities favoring the under, taking this bet feels like a savvy move in a challenging matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak9L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Curtis Mead MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak2L2062%
O 1.570%
O 2.550%
O 3.550%
O 4.530%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 3.7 · hi 7 · lo 0
704

Curtis Mead MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Curtis Mead MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak9L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.570%
O 3.550%
O 4.550%

Curtis Mead MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2054%
O 0.560%
O 1.550%

Curtis Mead MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2069%
O 0.570%
O 1.560%

Curtis Mead MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2054%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Curtis Mead MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -179 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -169 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -161 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Curtis Mead (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Curtis Mead is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals on Sunday 12 July at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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