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The latest Bet Better model pick for Curtis Mead is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +12.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 3:08PM UTC
MLB

Curtis Mead

MLB

+12.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -152 (1.66)
+12.8% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul, 8:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 439 of 781 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.0%
Implied Probability
60.2%
Model Edge
+12.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases73.0%—60.2%1.37+12.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Curtis Mead (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-152)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nationals prepare to host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Curtis Mead. While the young player has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he might struggle to surpass 1.5 total bases today. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has been surprisingly effective, especially against right-handed hitters, limiting opponents to a .230 batting average this month. Mead, who often finds himself in the heart of the lineup, faces challenges against lefty Zac Gallen, whose impressive 3.20 ERA and high strikeout rate have kept hitters off balance. Furthermore, the Nationals are mired in a slump, scoring just 3.4 runs per game over their last week and often leaving runners stranded. With an implied probability of just over 60% for Mead to stay under his total bases line, the stars seem to align for this bet. Today, expect the Diamondbacks' arms to keep Mead in check, making the under a compelling play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak9L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Curtis Mead MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak2L2062%
O 1.570%
O 2.550%
O 3.550%
O 4.530%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.2 · hi 7 · lo 0
70400

Curtis Mead MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Curtis Mead MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak9L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.570%
O 3.550%
O 4.550%

Curtis Mead MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2054%
O 0.560%
O 1.550%

Curtis Mead MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2069%
O 0.570%
O 1.560%

Curtis Mead MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2054%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Curtis Mead MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -152 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -185 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -179 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Curtis Mead is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Curtis Mead is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.8% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals on Saturday 25 July at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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