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Model picks & player props
Kansas City Royals
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 14, 2:41PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 5 Jun 2025, 5:45PM
19
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 6.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 19 markets for Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $140 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 90.8%, fair odds 1.10, book price -250, model edge +19.4%. Tip-off Thu 5 Jun 2025, 5:45PM at Busch Stadium.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 643 of 1,242 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 14
Under 7.5
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $212
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
12.5
+ 18 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Kansas City Royals

  • Tony Gonsolin SPOut
  • Vinnie Pasquantino 1BOut
  • Salvador Perez DHDay-to-day
  • Maikel Garcia 3BOut
  • Luinder Avila SPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Carlos Estevez RPOut
  • Beck Way RPOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Connor Seabold RPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut
  • Jonathan India 2BOut
  • James McArthur RPOut
  • Alec Marsh SPOut

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
Availability updated Aug 13, 10:41PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Kansas City Royals L52-3Free board8-8

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Kansas City Royals L52-3

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City RoyalsNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Kansas City Royals L52-3

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals — 19 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

19
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 18 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent results

St. Louis Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games; Kansas City Royals have won 0 of their last 5.

St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1PHIHome
W2–0PHIHome
L5–6PHIHome
W7–4COLHome
W3–2COLHome
Kansas City Royals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–4LADAway
L4–5LADAway
L5–6LADAway
L2–10CHCHome
L4–6CHCHome

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: St. Louis Cardinals won 3, Kansas City Royals won 3.

DateSt. Louis CardinalsKansas City RoyalsWinner
Jun 211210St. Louis Cardinals
Jun 2056Kansas City Royals
Jun 18614Kansas City Royals
May 1702Kansas City Royals
May 1642St. Louis Cardinals
May 1654St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Ramon Urias 3BOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT
Kansas City Royals
PlayerStatus
Tony Gonsolin SPOUT
Vinnie Pasquantino 1BOUT
Salvador Perez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Maikel Garcia 3BOUT
Luinder Avila SPOUT
Nick Mears RPOUT
Carlos Estevez RPOUT
Beck Way RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Bobby Witt Jr.. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals stats and odds.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals : Over 3.5 alternate_team_totals (-154)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'St. Louis Cardinals Over 3.5' for the Team Total Runs market is backed by several compelling statistics. The Cardinals have a strong home record against the Royals, winning 4 of their last 5 matchups. This suggests they have been able to consistently outperform the Royals. Furthermore, the Cardinals' average runs scored at home in the last 5 games is 3.6, which is just above the Line of 3.5. The Royals' defense has been struggling on the road, allowing an average of 4.6 runs in their last 5 away games. Additionally, the Cardinals' average batting hits at home are significantly higher at 8.4, which indicates a higher scoring potential. These factors combined make it statistically probable for the Cardinals to score over 3.5 runs.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Royals vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Royals. The most recent game between them was Thursday 5 June 2025 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 19 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Even at 3–3 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Jun 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals10–12St. Louis Cardinals
20 Jun 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals6–5Kansas City Royals
18 Jun 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals14–6Kansas City Royals
17 May 2026Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals0–2Kansas City Royals
16 May 2026Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals5–4St. Louis Cardinals
16 May 2026Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals4–2St. Louis Cardinals
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