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Model picks & player props
Kansas City Royals
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:59AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 5 Jun 2025, 5:45PM
19
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 6.5 (Total Runs)
For Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB), model win probability 90.8%, fair odds 1.10, book price -250, model edge +19.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 5 Jun 2025, 5:45PM at Busch Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
12.5
+ 18 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Kansas City Royals

  • Jac Caglianone RFDay-to-day
  • Kyle Isbel CFOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Bobby Witt Jr. SSOut
  • Maikel Garcia 3BOut
  • Carlos Estevez RPOut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut
  • Connor Seabold RPOut
  • Jonathan India 2BOut
  • James McArthur RPOut
  • Alec Marsh SPOut

Probable pitcher

Beck Way SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 12:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Kansas City Royals L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Kansas City Royals L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City RoyalsNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.2implied team total
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Kansas City Royals L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Bobby Witt Jr.. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals stats and odds.</p>

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals : Over 3.5 alternate_team_totals (-154)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'St. Louis Cardinals Over 3.5' for the Team Total Runs market is backed by several compelling statistics. The Cardinals have a strong home record against the Royals, winning 4 of their last 5 matchups. This suggests they have been able to consistently outperform the Royals. Furthermore, the Cardinals' average runs scored at home in the last 5 games is 3.6, which is just above the Line of 3.5. The Royals' defense has been struggling on the road, allowing an average of 4.6 runs in their last 5 away games. Additionally, the Cardinals' average batting hits at home are significantly higher at 8.4, which indicates a higher scoring potential. These factors combined make it statistically probable for the Cardinals to score over 3.5 runs.

Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Bobby Witt Jr.'s recent performance data supports the under 0.5 bet in the Batter Stolen Bases market. Witt Jr.'s average stolen base (SB) count in the last five overall games is 0.4, which is lower than the bet line of 0.5. When looking at his away game statistics, his average SB drops to 0.2, again below the bet line. Furthermore, his SB average against the Cardinals is zero. Additionally, the average caught stealing (Cs) rates for Witt Jr. are also low, which suggests that he's not taking as many risks on the bases. His current overall hit streak is zero, indicating a potential struggle at the plate. Although he has a two-game hit streak on the road, this alone is not enough to significantly raise his SB chances. Thus, the under 0.5 bet is a solid choice based on Witt Jr.'s recent performance data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals : Over 4.5 alternate_team_totals (+114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'St. Louis Cardinals Over 4.5' for the Team Total Runs is backed by the Cardinals' recent performance against the Royals and the Royals' defensive record. The Cardinals have a strong recent record against the Royals, winning 4 out of the last 5 games. Moreover, the Cardinals have averaged 4.2 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. On the other hand, the Royals have been struggling defensively, allowing an average of 4.4 runs in their last 5 games overall and 4.6 runs in their last 5 away games. The Cardinals' average bat hits at home (8.4) also exceeds their overall average (6.8), indicating a stronger offensive performance at home. These statistics suggest that the Cardinals are likely to score over 4.5 runs in the upcoming game.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals : Over 3.5 alternate_team_totals (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The St. Louis Cardinals have a strong record against the Kansas City Royals, having won 4 of their last 5 encounters. They have consistently scored above the line of 3.5, with an average of 4.2 runs scored in their last 5 games overall and 3.6 runs at home. Their batting average is also strong, especially at home where they average 8.4 hits. On the other hand, the Royals have been struggling defensively, allowing an average of 4.4 runs in their last 5 games overall, and 4.6 runs when playing away. The Royals' pitchers also have a high average of walks, which could provide the Cardinals with additional scoring opportunities. Considering these factors, betting on 'St. Louis Cardinals Over 3.5' seems a statistically sound choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 5 June 2025 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 19 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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