Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Drew Waters is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +9.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Drew Waters

KCR

+9.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -556 (1.18)
+9.3% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Wed 25 Jun, 11:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.0%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+9.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases94.0%—84.7%1.06+9.3%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games8/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Drew Waters (KCR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Drew Waters in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. His average stolen base rate in the last five games overall is just 0.2, showing a low frequency of stealing bases. This trend is even more pronounced in home games, where his stolen base average is 0. In addition, his hit streaks are relatively low, with an overall current hit streak of just 2 and a home hit streak of 1. These numbers suggest that Waters is not consistently getting on base, which would limit his opportunities to steal bases. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the opposing team, the Tampa Bay Rays, is also low at 0.2. All these statistics point to a low probability of Waters stealing a base in the upcoming game, making the under 0.5 bet a solid choice.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1.2avg hits · L5
Streak2L2050%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Drew Waters MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.2 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.4avg total bases · L5
Streak2
O 1.530%
O 4.510%

Drew Waters MLB total bases: averaging 2.4 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg home runs · L5

Drew Waters MLB home runs: averaging 0.2 home runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.2avg H+R+RBI · L5

Drew Waters MLB hits + runs + rbis: averaging 2.2 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
0.6avg singles · L5
Streak2

Drew Waters MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 0.6 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg doubles · L5

Drew Waters MLB doubles: averaging 0.2 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5
O 0.510%
O 1.510%

Drew Waters MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg stolen bases · L5

Drew Waters MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.2 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Drew Waters (KCR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Drew Waters is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.3% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals on Wednesday 25 June at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks