Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:54AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug 2025, 12:15AM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB), model win probability 79.9%, fair odds 1.25, book price -200, model edge +13.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 9 Aug 2025, 12:15AM at Busch Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Matthew Boyd SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 12:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.1implied team total
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 4.2 runs per game (1-4) while Chicago Cubs are at 6.8 (3-2); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Chicago Cubs.

4.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs
Runs / game4.26.8
Hits / game6.810.6
Home runs / game0.62.2
Walks drawn / game3.22.4
Batter K / game7.49.2
Earned runs allowed / game4.23.6
Pitching K / game5.88.0
Walks allowed / game3.63.8
L5 record1-43-2

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.</p>

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Over 3.5 alternate_team_totals (+100)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The St. Louis Cardinals have shown a consistent ability to score runs, with an average of 4.2 runs in their last five games overall and 3.6 runs in their last five home games. This indicates a strong offensive performance that exceeds the line of 3.5 runs. Additionally, the Chicago Cubs have been allowing an average of 4.8 runs in their last five games overall and 3.4 runs in their away games. Furthermore, the Cubs have been giving up an average of 4.2 bases on balls in their last five away games, which could provide the Cardinals with additional scoring opportunities. The combination of the Cardinals' offensive performance and the Cubs' defensive vulnerabilities make this bet a favorable choice.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Over 2.5 alternate_team_totals (-263)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Chicago Cubs have shown a strong offensive performance recently, averaging 6.8 runs overall and 5.6 runs in their away games in their last five matches. They also have an impressive batting average with 10.6 hits overall and 10.2 hits in away games. On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 4.4 runs in their last five games. Though their home defense is stronger, allowing only 1.4 runs, their record against the Cubs is weak, with 1 win and 4 losses in recent matchups. Considering the Cubs' strong offense and the Cardinals' weaker defense, betting on the Cubs to score over 2.5 runs is a statistically sound choice.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Over 2.5 alternate_team_totals (-278)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Chicago Cubs Over 2.5' for the Team Total Runs is a solid choice, mainly due to the Cubs' recent scoring performance. In their last five games, the Cubs have averaged 6.8 runs overall and 5.6 runs in away games, both well above the 2.5 line. Moreover, they have been hitting well with an average of 10.6 hits in their last five games overall and 10.2 hits in away games. This offensive strength is further supported by the Cardinals' recent defensive performance. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 4.4 runs in their last five games overall. Although their home defensive record is better (1.4 runs allowed on average), the Cubs' strong offensive performance could likely overcome this. The Cubs' recent track record makes a total run over 2.5 a statistically sound bet.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Under 10.5' bet is a strong choice for the Cardinals vs Cubs game, mainly due to the recent performance data of both teams. The Cardinals have been struggling to score runs, with an average of 4.2 runs in their last 5 games and only 3.6 at home. Similarly, the Cubs have averaged 6.8 runs overall and 5.6 away from home. When it comes to pitching, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 4.4 runs, but significantly less (1.4) at home. The Cubs have allowed 4.8 runs overall and 3.4 away. Considering these stats, the total runs are likely to be less than 10.5. Furthermore, the model prediction of 7.44 runs supports this under bet. The home and away batting averages and home runs also suggest a low-scoring game.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Under 10.5' for the total runs in the St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs game is a good choice based on several factors. Both teams have a lower average of runs scored in their last five games (4.2 and 6.8 respectively) than the line set for this game. Furthermore, when playing at home, the Cardinals' runs scored average drops to 3.6, and their runs allowed average is just 1.4, suggesting a low-scoring game is likely. The Cubs' away performance also supports this bet, with an average of 5.6 runs scored and 3.4 runs allowed. The Cardinals' average batting hits and home runs are also lower than the Cubs', indicating less scoring potential. Overall, these statistics suggest a lower-scoring game, making 'Under 10.5' a solid bet.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 6.5 alternate_team_totals (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Chicago Cubs Under 6.5' is a strong choice given the Cubs' recent performance and the Cardinals' defensive records. The Cubs' Away L5 Runs Scored Average is 5.6, which is under the 6.5 line. Additionally, the Cardinals' Home L5 At Home Runs Allowed Average is a mere 1.4, indicating a strong defensive performance at home. Furthermore, the Cardinals' recent record against the Cubs is positive, with the Cubs losing 4 out of the last 5 games. The model prediction also supports this bet, predicting the Cubs to score only 4.17 runs. These statistics suggest that the probability of the Cubs scoring under 6.5 runs is high, making this a strong bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks