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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:52PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Sat 13 Sep 2025, 7:07PM
0
Game Picks
8
Player Props
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Bradish SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Jonatan Clase LFDay-to-day
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:18PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Nathan Lukes TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
George Springer TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Colton Cowser BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andres Gimenez TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3Win rec3-9

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3ATS5-9

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
1.6implied team total
L5 RF1.2L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 1.8 runs per game (1-4) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 4.4 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game1.84.0
Hits / game6.05.6
Home runs / game0.22.2
Walks drawn / game2.22.8
Batter K / game6.48.0
Earned runs allowed / game4.45.4
Pitching K / game6.25.4
Walks allowed / game2.83.6
L5 record1-43-2

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Toronto Blue Jays playing Baltimore Orioles. Includes analysis on key players like Nathan Lukes. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.</p>

Nathan Lukes (TOR) Under 1.5 Hits (-278)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on Nathan Lukes for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is primarily based on his recent batting performance. Lukes' last five games show an average of just 0.4 hits overall and 0.2 hits when playing at home. Despite having a current hit streak, his plate appearances (PA) averages are low, with 2.2 overall and the same at home, indicating that he has fewer opportunities to hit. Against the Orioles, his hits average is also 0.4, reinforcing the under 1.5 prediction. Even though his home PA average is slightly higher at 3, his hit rate does not show a significant increase. Therefore, based on these statistics, the likelihood of Lukes hitting under 1.5 is statistically supported.

George Springer (TOR) Under 1.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

George Springer's performance data indicate a consistent pattern of achieving less than 1.5 hits per game, making the Under 1.5 bet a good choice. His last five games at home and against the Orioles, he averaged 0.8 hits per game, which is significantly lower than the line of 1.5. Even though he is on a home hit streak of 6 games, his overall hits average is still below the line. Furthermore, his plate appearances (PA) averages are 4.4 overall, 3.8 at home, and 3.2 against the Orioles, which suggests that he does not get many opportunities to bat. Even when he does bat, his hits averages indicate that he often does not capitalize on these opportunities. Therefore, based on these statistics, the Under 1.5 bet for Springer is a sound choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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