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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:12PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Wed 21 May 2025, 5:10PM
19
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 3.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 25 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $240 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 70.3%, fair odds 1.42, book price +140, model edge +28.6%. Tip-off Wed 21 May 2025, 5:10PM at loanDepot Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
6.5
+ 18 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Miami Marlins

  • Kyle Stowers 1BDay-to-day
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
Availability updated Aug 9, 8:52PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ian Happ CHC Batter -Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Matt Mervis MIA Batter -Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter -Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Justin Turner CHC Batter -Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3Free board10-6

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3Free board10-9

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins — 19 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

19
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W12–3LAAHome
W7–0LAAHome
L3–4LAAHome
L3–11ATLAway
L1–4ATLAway
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Kyle Stowers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Max Meyer SPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 21 May 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 19 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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