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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:59PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Wed 21 May 2025, 5:10PM
19
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 3.5 Team Total +140

The model graded 25 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $240 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 21 May 2025, 5:10PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win70.3%
The price says41.7%
Best price+140
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 3.5 High70% chance +140
Team Total Lean56% chance
Team Total Lean42% chance
Team Total High82% chance
Team Total Long-shot28% chance
Team Total High90% chance
Team Total Long-shot17% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 4 props Highup to 82%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 88%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
2.5
+ 18 more markets
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All 19 game markets and 6 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP

Miami Marlins

  • Xavier Edwards 2BDay-to-day
  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 11:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ian Happ CHC Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Matt Mervis MIA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Justin Turner CHC Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Chicago Cubs L53-2Free board14-11

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Chicago Cubs L53-2

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Chicago Cubs L53-2

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins — 19 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

19
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 1 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5WSHAway
L2–9WSHAway
W4–0BOSHome
L3–7BOSHome
L2–4BOSHome
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W17–5CINHome
L8–10CINHome
L4–5ARIAway
L0–2ARIAway
W7–0ARIAway

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 21 May 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 19 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 18 meetings on record
Even at 9–9 across the last 18 meetings · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
21 May 2025Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins1–2Chicago Cubs
20 May 2025Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins1–14Chicago Cubs
19 May 2025Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins8–7Miami Marlins
14 May 2025Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs1–3Miami Marlins
13 May 2025Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs5–4Chicago Cubs
12 May 2025Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs5–2Chicago Cubs
25 Aug 2024Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins7–2Miami Marlins
24 Aug 2024Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins2–14Chicago Cubs
23 Aug 2024Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins3–6Chicago Cubs
21 Apr 2024Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs3–6Miami Marlins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 18 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

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