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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 24, 11:27PM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals and backs Under 2.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $1,500.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:15PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 2.5 Total Runs +1400

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,500 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 30 Aug 2026, 6:15PM at Busch Stadium.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win5.0%
The price says6.7%
Best price+1400
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 2.5 Long-shot5% chance +1400
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot7% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot16% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean47% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot16% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot28% chance Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Members
Batter - RBIs × 8 props Members
Batter - Doubles × 8 props Members
Batter - Walks × 7 props Members
Batter - Singles × 5 props Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 5 props Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals last met on Sun 30 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 101 of 171 right (mlb pitcher outs unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 24
Ethan Pecko Under 14.5
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $204
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut

Probable pitcher

Paul Skenes SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Blaze Jordan 3BOut
  • Joshua Baez LFOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Leahy SP
Availability updated Sep 24, 4:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jake Mangum Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jordan Walker STL Batter - Total Bases
Jordan Walker STL Batter - Stolen Bases
Jordan Walker STL Batter - RBIs
Jordan Walker STL Batter - Doubles

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.2Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.2Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.2Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent results

St. Louis Cardinals have won 2 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5.

St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–1PITAway
L0–2PITAway
W5–3WSHHome
L1–9WSHHome
L5–8WSHHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–5STLHome
W2–0STLHome
W4–3KCHome
W6–5KCHome
W8–5KCHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 3.2 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 1.0 (2-3); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
1.0
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.21.0
Hits / game4.03.2
Home runs / game0.60.4
Walks drawn / game0.21.6
Batter K / game3.42.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.00.8
Pitching K / game3.02.8
Walks allowed / game1.00.6
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: St. Louis Cardinals won 5, Pittsburgh Pirates won 5.

DateSt. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Sep 2351St. Louis Cardinals
Sep 2202Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 3045Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 2941St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 2926Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2126Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2007Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1996St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 30105St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 2954St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Blaze Jordan 3BOUT
Joshua Baez LFOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals prediction for August 31, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 31, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Nick Yorke Under 0.5 RBIs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
30 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Spread St. Louis Cardinals +2.5 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Sunday 30 August 2026 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 54 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 28–26 across the last 54 meetings · these games average 7.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
24 Sep 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Sep 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–5St. Louis Cardinals
22 Sep 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–0Pittsburgh Pirates
30 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals4–5Pittsburgh Pirates
29 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals4–1St. Louis Cardinals
21 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
20 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals0–7Pittsburgh Pirates
19 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals9–6St. Louis Cardinals
30 Apr 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–10St. Louis Cardinals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 54 meetings on file.

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