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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 14, 3:43PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 28 Aug 2025, 6:15PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 2.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 20 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $132 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 94.1%, fair odds 1.06, book price -313, model edge +18.3%. Tip-off Thu 28 Aug 2025, 6:15PM at Busch Stadium.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 643 of 1,242 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 14
Under 7.5
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $212
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
Availability updated Aug 13, 5:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3Free board8-8

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent results

St. Louis Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5.

St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1PHIHome
W2–0PHIHome
L5–6PHIHome
W7–4COLHome
W3–2COLHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W13–1MIAAway
L2–8MIAAway
L0–2MIAAway
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 4.2 runs per game (1-4) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

4.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game4.24.2
Hits / game6.810.2
Home runs / game0.61.0
Walks drawn / game3.24.2
Batter K / game7.48.8
Earned runs allowed / game4.23.6
Pitching K / game5.85.6
Walks allowed / game3.62.4
L5 record1-42-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: St. Louis Cardinals won 1, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateSt. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
May 2126Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2007Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1996St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Ramon Urias 3BOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for St. Louis Cardinals playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like Joey Bart. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Joey Bart (PIT) Over 0.5 Hits (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Joey Bart's betting data presents a compelling case for an Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market. Bart's recent performance shows a strong hitting average, both overall and specifically when playing away games. His last five overall hits average is 1, which is double the line set for this bet. Furthermore, his last five away hits average is 1.2, again comfortably above the betting line. His current overall hit streak stands at 4, indicating a consistent performance. Although his away current hit streak is only at 1, his consistent performance in the past five games, whether at home or away, suggests a high probability of him hitting over 0.5 in the upcoming game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Thus, based on these statistics, Joey Bart's Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market is a solid choice.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 28 August 2025 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Pittsburgh Pirates 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
21 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
20 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals0–7Pittsburgh Pirates
19 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals9–6St. Louis Cardinals
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