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Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:56AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 28 Aug 2025, 6:15PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB), model win probability 94.1%, fair odds 1.06, book price -313, model edge +18.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 28 Aug 2025, 6:15PM at Busch Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Rafael Flores Jr. COut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut
  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 12:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.0implied team total
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 4.2 runs per game (1-4) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

4.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game4.24.2
Hits / game6.810.2
Home runs / game0.61.0
Walks drawn / game3.24.2
Batter K / game7.48.8
Earned runs allowed / game4.23.6
Pitching K / game5.85.6
Walks allowed / game3.62.4
L5 record1-42-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for St. Louis Cardinals playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like Joey Bart. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

Joey Bart (PIT) Over 0.5 Hits (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Joey Bart's betting data presents a compelling case for an Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market. Bart's recent performance shows a strong hitting average, both overall and specifically when playing away games. His last five overall hits average is 1, which is double the line set for this bet. Furthermore, his last five away hits average is 1.2, again comfortably above the betting line. His current overall hit streak stands at 4, indicating a consistent performance. Although his away current hit streak is only at 1, his consistent performance in the past five games, whether at home or away, suggests a high probability of him hitting over 0.5 in the upcoming game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Thus, based on these statistics, Joey Bart's Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market is a solid choice.

Joey Bart (PIT) Over 0.5 Hits (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Joey Bart's performance data indicates a strong likelihood for him to hit over 0.5 in the upcoming game. His overall average hits in the last five games are at 1, and he has maintained this average even when playing away games. Notably, against the Cardinals, his average hits are also at 1.2, indicating his ability to perform well against this specific team. His plate appearance averages remain consistent at 4, which means he typically has multiple opportunities to hit in each game. Furthermore, Bart is currently on a 4-game hitting streak overall, suggesting he is in good form. While his away hit streak is only at 1, his consistent performance in other areas provides a compelling rationale for betting on him to hit over 0.5.

Nick Gonzales (PIT) Over 0.5 Hits (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Nick Gonzales is a strong choice for an Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market due to his consistent performance. He has an average of 1.2 hits overall in his last 5 games and an even higher average of 1.4 hits when playing against the Cardinals. His performance is also consistent when playing away, with an average of 0.8 hits. In addition, Gonzales has an average of 4 plate appearances both overall and in away games, giving him ample opportunities to secure a hit. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, further demonstrate his ability to consistently deliver hits. Given these statistics, there is a high probability that Gonzales will achieve at least one hit in the upcoming game against the Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'St. Louis Cardinals Under 5.5' for the Team Total Runs is supported by recent performance data. Over their last five games, the Cardinals have averaged 4.2 runs overall and just 3.6 runs at home, both figures falling below the 5.5 line. Their batting average in these games has been mediocre, with 6.8 hits overall and 8.4 at home. On the other side, the Pirates have been effective in limiting runs, allowing an average of just 3.8 runs overall and 3.6 runs away in their last five games. Their pitching has been disciplined, with an average of 2.4 base on balls overall and 3 away. These statistics suggest the Cardinals may struggle to exceed the 5.5 run line.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a strong pick for this match-up, primarily due to their recent defensive performance. They have consistently allowed fewer runs than the Cardinals, averaging 3.8 runs allowed overall and 3.6 on the road in their last five games, compared to the Cardinals' 4.4 overall and 1.4 at home. This superior defense has helped the Pirates maintain parity in run production, averaging 4.2 runs scored in their last five games, identical to the Cardinals. Furthermore, the Cardinals' recent form is a concern, with a 1-4 record in their last five games, compared to the Pirates' 3-2. The Pirates have also won the majority of recent encounters against the Cardinals, with a 3-2 record. These statistics suggest that the Pirates are in a better form and have a stronger defense, making them a solid bet for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a strong choice for this Moneyline bet, given their recent performance. The Pirates and Cardinals have similar scoring averages, but the Pirates have a better defensive record, allowing fewer runs on average both overall and in away games. This suggests a stronger overall team performance. Additionally, the Cardinals have been struggling recently, with a 1-4 record in their last 5 games. Even at home, their record is only slightly positive at 3-2. The Pirates also have a slight edge in recent head-to-head matchups, winning 3 out of the last 5 games. While the Cardinals do perform better defensively at home, this hasn't translated into a strong winning record. Given these factors, betting on the Pirates seems a smart choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 28 August 2025 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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