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Model picks & player props
Newcastle Knights
VS
South Sydney Rabbitohs

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 6:51AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NRL
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 10:00AM
12
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 47.5 Total Points +100

The model graded 12 markets for Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (NRL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 11 Sep 2026, 10:00AM.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win53.3%
The price says47.4%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Points Under 47.5 Lean53% chance +100
Spread Lean54% chance
1st Half Total Points Lean52% chance
Alt Spread Lean54% chance
Moneyline High67% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
South Sydney Rabbitohs are the model's favourite to beat Newcastle Knights, with a 67% chance to win. Predicted score: South Sydney Rabbitohs 27.6 – Newcastle Knights 16.5. Kick-off Fri 11 Sep, 10:00AM. Best bet: Under 47.5 at +100.
How they've been scoring this season
Newcastle KnightsSouth Sydney Rabbitohs
Won-lost14-911-8
Points scored per game26.628.4
Points allowed per game24.723.6
On the road / at home6-6 away8-3 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWLLWWLWW
Their games average 51.7 total points this season.
From the 23 Newcastle Knights and 19 South Sydney Rabbitohs games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 12 bookmakers compared
Winner
Knights3.00+200Betr
Draw30.00+2900Marathonbet
Rabbitohs1.50-200PointsBet
Total points
Over47.51.80-125TAB
Under47.52.00+100TAB

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs odds by bookmaker

12 books · best price in green
BookKnights winRabbitohs winRabbitohs -7.5Over 47.5Under 47.5
TAB2.90+1901.42-2381.85-1181.80-1252.00+100
Betr3.00+2001.39-2561.85-118
Casumo2.88+1881.42-2381.89-112
Grosvenor2.80+1801.41-2441.88-114
Leovegas Se2.88+1881.42-2381.89-112
TABtouch2.88+1881.42-2381.89-112
Unibet2.85+1851.42-2381.90-111
Unibet Nl2.88+1881.42-2381.89-112
Unibet Se2.88+1881.42-2381.89-112
Marathonbet3.00+2001.40-250
LiveScore Bet1.84-119
PointsBet2.55+1551.50-200

Since the market opened: Rabbitohs to win opened 1.43, best now 1.50; the over 47.5 opened 1.80, best now 1.80 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NRL market — 86 of 135 right (nrl totals overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 5
Over 52.5
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @ New Zealand Warriors
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $260
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
47.5
+ 11 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
South Sydney RabbitohsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Under1st Half Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
South Sydney RabbitohsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
South Sydney RabbitohsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Draw on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Draw
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Newcastle Knights

Player availability is not tracked for NRL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Player availability is not tracked for NRL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and player availability isn't tracked for NRL on this page.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 6 Sep

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Picks: Full Match Breakdown & Bets

On Friday 11 September 2026, South Sydney Rabbitohs play Newcastle Knights in the NRL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is South Sydney Rabbitohs -7.5 on the Line, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

South Sydney Rabbitohs -7.5 on the Line (-111)

Odds available at Unibet at time of publishing

On Friday 11 September 2026, South Sydney Rabbitohs host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is South Sydney Rabbitohs -7.5 Line. On this line South Sydney Rabbitohs give up 7.5 points before the game starts, so they have to win by more than 7.5. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. That price was showing at Unibet. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 47.5 Total Points (+100)

Odds available at TAB at time of publishing

On Friday 11 September 2026, South Sydney Rabbitohs host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Under 47.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 47.5 points between them. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. That price was showing at TAB. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

South Sydney Rabbitohs to Win (-200)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

On Friday 11 September 2026, South Sydney Rabbitohs host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is South Sydney Rabbitohs Match Winner. This one only needs South Sydney Rabbitohs to win the game. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. That price was showing at PointsBet. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Newcastle Knights @ South Sydney Rabbitohs — what the model found

Our model graded 12 betting markets for Newcastle Knights at South Sydney Rabbitohs — 12 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

12
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 12 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 11 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Newcastle Knights @ South Sydney Rabbitohs — where the money went

Since betting opened on Newcastle Knights at South Sydney Rabbitohs, the market has moved away from Draw across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Draw▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Newcastle Knights▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — South Sydney Rabbitohs▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Newcastle Knights @ South Sydney Rabbitohs — model preview

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights, 9 September 2026. Top of the list: Under 47.5 Total Points. Our model likes one bet in this game.

On Wednesday 9 September 2026, South Sydney Rabbitohs play Newcastle Knights in the NRL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Under 47.5 Total Points, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 47.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Wednesday 9 September 2026, South Sydney Rabbitohs host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Under 47.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 47.5 points between them. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs in the NRL. You may also see this matchup written as Knights vs Rabbitohs, or as Rabbitohs vs Knights. The next scheduled game is Friday 11 September 2026. The model has generated 12 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NRL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Knights @ Rabbitohs26–24Rabbitohs
3 May 2026Rabbitohs @ Knights42–38Knights
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