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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 1:55PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 31 May 2025, 6:20PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs (MLB), model win probability 47.1%, fair odds 2.12, book price +230, model edge +16.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 31 May 2025, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Under
3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Chase Burns SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

David Peterson SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Nick Lodolo CIN Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Lodolo CIN Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Fraley CIN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Seiya Suzuki CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Benson CIN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2Win rec6-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2ATS9-7

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 6.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
4.4implied team total
L5 RF6.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Cincinnati Reds are at 8.0 (2-3); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for Cincinnati Reds.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Runs / game6.88.0
Hits / game10.612.4
Home runs / game2.22.0
Walks drawn / game2.46.0
Batter K / game9.29.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.64.2
Pitching K / game8.07.4
Walks allowed / game3.83.4
L5 record3-22-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.</p>

Ian Happ (CHC) Over 0.5 Hits (-196)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Ian Happ for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Happ's overall hits average is 2.2 per game, well above the 0.5 line set for this bet. Even at home, his average is 1.8 hits, which is still significantly higher than the line. Furthermore, Happ is currently on a hit streak, both overall and at home, indicating a consistent performance. Although his hits average against the Reds is lower at 1, it is still double the line set for this bet. Therefore, based on his recent performance and current form, there is a strong statistical likelihood that Ian Happ will hit over 0.5 in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Reds.

TJ Friedl (CIN) Over 0.5 Hits (-185)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on TJ Friedl for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a solid choice due to his consistent performance. His overall batting average of 2 hits in the last 5 games and 1.8 hits when playing away demonstrate a consistent hitting ability. Furthermore, his current hit streak stands at 6 overall and 5 for away games, indicating a strong current form. Although his average hits drop to 0.8 when playing against the Cubs and 0.6 when playing away, his plate appearances (PA) are also lower in these situations (3.8 and 4.2 respectively), suggesting that his hit rate remains steady. Given his current form and consistent hit rate, there is a high likelihood that Friedl will achieve over 0.5 hits in the upcoming match.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 31 May 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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