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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 5:30PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 31 May 2025, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 2.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 25 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $330 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 47.1%, fair odds 2.12, book price +230, model edge +16.8%. Tip-off Sat 31 May 2025, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Under
4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Chicago Cubs

  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:23AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Nick Lodolo CIN Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Lodolo CIN Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Fraley CIN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Seiya Suzuki CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Benson CIN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2Free board12-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2Free board13-9

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
2.7runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7WSHAway
L2–8WSHAway
L3–5WSHAway
W6–5ATHHome
W3–2ATHHome

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Cincinnati Reds are at 8.0 (2-3); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for Cincinnati Reds.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Runs / game6.88.0
Hits / game10.612.4
Home runs / game2.22.0
Walks drawn / game2.46.0
Batter K / game9.29.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.64.2
Pitching K / game8.07.4
Walks allowed / game3.83.4
L5 record3-22-3

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 2, Cincinnati Reds won 1.

DateChicago CubsCincinnati RedsWinner
Jul 1284Chicago Cubs
Jul 1153Chicago Cubs
Jul 1004Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Nick Lodolo SPOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Winning baseball bets for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.

Ian Happ (CHC) Over 0.5 Hits (-196)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Ian Happ for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Happ's overall hits average is 2.2 per game, well above the 0.5 line set for this bet. Even at home, his average is 1.8 hits, which is still significantly higher than the line. Furthermore, Happ is currently on a hit streak, both overall and at home, indicating a consistent performance. Although his hits average against the Reds is lower at 1, it is still double the line set for this bet. Therefore, based on his recent performance and current form, there is a strong statistical likelihood that Ian Happ will hit over 0.5 in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Reds.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Saturday 31 May 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Chicago Cubs 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds4–8Chicago Cubs
11 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds3–5Chicago Cubs
10 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds4–0Cincinnati Reds
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