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The latest Bet Better model pick for Javier Assad is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +29.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 1:20AM UTC
MLB

Javier Assad

MLB

+29.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 5.5 -149 (1.67) · $100→$167
+29.1% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Wed 5 Aug, 12:05AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.0%
Implied Probability
59.9%
Model Edge
+29.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed89.0%—59.9%1.12+29.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/3
Last 10 games0/3

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AI Analysis

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Javier Assad Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-149)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Chicago Cubs play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Javier Assad Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-149). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -149 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.71 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Javier Assad has gone over 1.5 SO in 67% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.567%
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Aug 26 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending
30 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Pitcher - Strikeouts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Javier Assad is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Javier Assad is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.1% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs on Wednesday 5 August at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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