Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Javier Assad is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 52%, edge +27.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Under 3.50 SOlanded 3 of the last 3
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 5, 11:15AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+27.7% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers
@
Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Wed 5 Aug, 12:05AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter hits overs: 74 of 109 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
79 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 79.5% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +27.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 79.5% | — | 51.8% | 1.26 | +27.7% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/3 |
| Last 10 games | 2/3 |
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Javier Assad Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Chicago Cubs play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Javier Assad Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-108). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.26 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Hit-rate ladder: SO
Javier Assad has gone over 1.5 SO in 67% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o1.567%
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
Javier Assad is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Javier Assad is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.7% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs on Wednesday 5 August at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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