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Model picks & player props
Seattle Mariners
VS
San Diego Padres

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 15, 4:55AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr 2026, 12:40AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: San Diego Padres 4 (Spread)
The model graded 20 markets for Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $550 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 69.1%, fair odds 1.45, book price +450, model edge +50.9%. Tip-off Fri 17 Apr 2026, 12:40AM at Petco Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 643 of 1,242 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 14
Under 7.5
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $212
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
San Diego Padres
+10.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Seattle Mariners

  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Taylor Ward LFDay-to-day
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

George Kirby SP

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Samad Taylor LFOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Michael King SP
Availability updated Aug 15, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Seattle Mariners L55-0Free board13-5

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Seattle Mariners L55-0

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Seattle MarinersNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Seattle Mariners L55-0

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 5 of their last 5 games; Seattle Mariners have won 1 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5CLEAway
W11–2MILHome
W4–3MILHome
W3–2MILHome
W7–2HOUHome
Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–10HOUAway
W1–0NYYAway
L5–10NYYAway
L1–4NYYAway
L2–3TBHome

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: San Diego Padres won 3, Seattle Mariners won 0.

DateSan Diego PadresSeattle MarinersWinner
May 1783San Diego Padres
May 1674San Diego Padres
May 1620San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Samad Taylor LFOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Bryan Hoeing RPOUT
Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Matt Brash RPOUT
Taylor Ward LFDAY-TO-DAY
Colt Emerson SSOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Carlos Vargas RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mariners vs Padres, or as Padres vs Mariners. The most recent game between them was Friday 17 April 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
San Diego Padres 3–0 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
17 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners3–8San Diego Padres
16 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners0–2San Diego Padres
16 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners4–7San Diego Padres
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