Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Xander Bogaerts is Under 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored.
On the Batter - Runs Scored market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:39PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Runs Scored
Under 0.5
-278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+5.4% Edge
Milwaukee Brewers
@
San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Tue 11 Aug, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
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Implied Probability
73.5%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Runs Scored | 78.9% | — | 73.5% | 1.27 | +5.4% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 4/5 |
| Last 10 games | 9/10 |
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Xander Bogaerts (BOS) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-278)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
San Diego Padres play Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Xander Bogaerts (BOS) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-278). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
4 markets liveBatter - RBIsUpcoming gameU 0.5 -455 Game log vs U 0.56 / 8 hit
Xander Bogaerts MLB rbis: cleared under 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Current line U 0.5 at -455.
Batter - Runs ScoredUpcoming gameU 0.5 -278 Game log vs U 0.58 / 9 hit
Xander Bogaerts MLB runs scored: cleared under 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Current line U 0.5 at -278.
Batter - SinglesUpcoming gameU 0.5 -159 Game log vs U 0.54 / 9 hit
Xander Bogaerts MLB singles: cleared under 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Current line U 0.5 at -159.
Batter - DoublesUpcoming gameU 0.5 -1111 Game log vs U 0.55 / 7 hit
Xander Bogaerts MLB doubles: cleared under 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Current line U 0.5 at -1111.
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.2 · hi 1 · lo 0
Xander Bogaerts MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.
Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.2 · hi 3 · lo 0
Xander Bogaerts MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.3 · hi 4 · lo 0
Xander Bogaerts MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.
Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
Xander Bogaerts MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.
Batter - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Xander Bogaerts MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 10 Aug 26 |
 Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres |
Batter - Doubles |
0.5 |
Under |
-769 |
✓ HIT |
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Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Xander Bogaerts is Under 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres on Tuesday 11 August at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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