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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Xander Bogaerts is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Xander Bogaerts

BOS

+8.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -204 (1.49)
+8.0% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Tue 21 Jul, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.1%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+8.0%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.1%67.1%1.33+8.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Xander Bogaerts (BOS) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Braves prepare to host the Padres, all eyes will be on Xander Bogaerts, whose recent performance paints a cautious picture for his total bases. Bogaerts has struggled to find his rhythm against right-handed pitchers lately, and with Atlanta's ace on the mound, he's likely to face a real challenge. The Braves' pitching staff has been superb, especially at home, where they’ve limited opposing hitters to a mere .220 average over the past month. Bogaerts’ tendency to ground into double plays also raises a red flag, especially against a Braves defense that's been turning them at a high rate. With the stakes high and Atlanta playing for postseason positioning, expect them to keep the pressure on. Given all these factors, betting the under on Bogaerts' total bases seems wise; it’s a scenario where less might just be more, and the numbers are firmly in our corner.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -204+8.0% edge
70%hit L10
Streak2L2060%
Game log vs U 1.53 / 5 hit
21120

Xander Bogaerts MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -204 (+8.0% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak4L2060%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1 · hi 1 · lo 1
111

Xander Bogaerts MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak4L2060%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Xander Bogaerts MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%
O 1.510%

Xander Bogaerts MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%
O 1.510%

Xander Bogaerts MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak4
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

Xander Bogaerts MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 26 San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -182 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -159 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -238 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Total Bases Pending
12 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks Pending
09 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks Pending

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About This Player

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Xander Bogaerts is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves on Tuesday 21 July at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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