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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
New York Yankees

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 17, 6:23AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul 2026, 11:05PM
13
Game Picks
12
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 5.5 (Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings)
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees (MLB), model win probability 65.6%, fair odds 1.52, book price -141, model edge +7.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 17 Jul 2026, 11:05PM at Yankee Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Under
5.5
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Los Angeles Dodgers on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Los Angeles Dodgers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

New York Yankees

  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
Availability updated Jul 16, 6:16PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Kyle Tucker HOU Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andy Pages Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shohei Ohtani LAA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Freddie Freeman ATL Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mookie Betts LAD Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Los Angeles DodgersOver 9.5 +106+5.4% edge
54%over %
9.9proj. runs
L5 RF4.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2O/U9-13

New York Yankees total runs vs Los Angeles Dodgers is live with a model 54% read and a +5.4% model edge; proj. runs 9.9.

MoneylineNew York Yankees to win+100+2.3% edge
52%model win %
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2Win rec4-10

New York Yankees moneyline vs Los Angeles Dodgers is live with a model 52% read and a +2.3% model edge; L5 record 3-2.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run line-3.5 +310+2.2% edge
-0.6proj. margin
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.8Away L54-1vs New York Yankees L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers spread vs New York Yankees is live with a model 27% read and a +2.2% model edge; proj. margin -0.6.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
3.0implied team total
L5 RF4.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 4.2 runs per game (3-2) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 2.2 (4-1); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

4.2
New York Yankees runs/G
2.2
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game4.22.2
Hits / game5.62.6
Home runs / game0.80.8
Walks drawn / game1.40.6
Batter K / game3.02.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.41.8
Pitching K / game3.22.2
Walks allowed / game0.61.6
L5 record3-24-1

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees — model preview

<p>Deep dive into New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Shohei Ohtani. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.</p>

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Yankees host the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani, whose recent form suggests he’s poised for a big night at the plate. The two-way star has been on fire, consistently racking up hits against top-tier pitching. With the Yankees’ bullpen struggling lately, Ohtani's ability to connect against both starters and relievers becomes even more crucial. Considering his impressive batting average and a solid on-base percentage, it’s hard to overlook the likelihood of him recording at least one hit. The Dodgers have a potent lineup, and with the game expected to be tightly contested, Ohtani will undoubtedly have ample opportunities to capitalize on any mistake. Given his recent trends and the matchup against the Yankees' pitching staff, betting on Ohtani to go over 0.5 hits feels like a smart play. Expect him to rise to the occasion and make a significant impact in this thrilling matchup.

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When the Yankees and Dodgers face off, all eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani, who continues to defy the odds as a dual-threat superstar. With a batting average hovering around the .300 mark and a recent surge in form, Ohtani's ability to make contact is undeniable. The Yankees' pitching staff has struggled against left-handed hitters, and Ohtani has capitalized on similar matchups, showing impressive discipline at the plate. Moreover, the Dodgers' recent offensive surge adds another layer of complexity, creating an environment where every at-bat counts. With Ohtani's keen eye and powerful swing, expecting him to notch at least one hit seems not just reasonable, but likely. Given the 69% implied probability of him getting that hit, backing the Over on 0.5 hits feels like a wise move in this high-stakes matchup. The stars are aligned for Ohtani to shine once again in the bright lights of Yankee Stadium.

Jasson Domínguez (NYY) Over 0.5 batter_hits_runs_rbis_alternate (-263)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Yankees gear up to face the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Jasson Domínguez, who’s been quietly establishing himself as a force in the lineup. With New York riding a wave of momentum, Domínguez has been particularly hot at the plate lately, showcasing a disciplined approach and an impressive knack for getting on base. The Yankees’ offense has been a well-oiled machine, averaging over five runs per game lately, and with the Dodgers’ pitching rotation showing some vulnerability, particularly against lefties, it’s a ripe opportunity for Domínguez to capitalize. Furthermore, he’s proven to thrive in high-stakes matchups, and with the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium electrifying, it’s hard to imagine he won’t contribute at least one hit, run, or RBI. Taking the over on 0.5 seems not just sensible, but almost inevitable given the current form of both Domínguez and the Yankees' lineup.

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Under 5.5 totals_1st_5_innings (-141)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees prepare to host the Dodgers, there’s a palpable tension in the air, and it’s reflected in this low total of 5.5 runs. Both teams have been trending towards the under lately. The Yankees’ pitching staff has been nothing short of phenomenal, boasting a collective ERA that ranks among the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Dodgers face a formidable challenge with their own bats. Despite a strong lineup, they’ve struggled to find consistency at the plate, especially against elite pitching. Additionally, both offenses have been prone to bouts of inconsistency, with recent games showing a tendency to grind through innings rather than light up the scoreboard. Given the matchup of talented arms and the current form of both lineups, expecting a low-scoring affair feels more than reasonable. With the odds stacked against a high-scoring game, backing the under at 5.5 runs appears to be a savvy play.

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+106)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees host the Dodgers in this anticipated showdown, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. Both lineups possess the firepower to light up the scoreboard—New York boasts a potent offense, ranking among the top in runs per game, while Los Angeles has shown consistent ability to generate offense, particularly against right-handed pitching. Looking at recent trends, both teams have seen their bats come alive, with the Yankees averaging over five runs in their last few outings. On the flip side, the Dodgers have been equally prolific, often surpassing the total runs mark in their matchups. With two ace pitchers on the mound, it might seem counterintuitive, but recent performances suggest that neither will be able to fully contain these explosive lineups. Given the offensive depth and the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, betting the over on 9.5 feels like a savvy move, especially with the model predicting nearly ten runs in this exciting clash.

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Over 10.5 Total Runs (+144)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees host the Dodgers on July 17, expect a fireworks show at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have been swinging hot bats lately, with the Yankees averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are riding a wave of offensive momentum, lighting up opposing pitchers to the tune of nearly six runs per game during the same stretch. Pitching matchups can be unpredictable, but both starters have shown vulnerability recently. The Yankees' ace has struggled with giving up long balls, while the Dodgers' hurler has had trouble keeping runners off the bases. With a total set at 10.5, the blend of each team's offensive prowess and pitching inconsistencies suggests the Over is the smart play here. Given the recent trends and the talent on the field, we're likely to see plenty of scoring in this high-octane clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 17 July 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 13 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.