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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Houston Astros

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 1:18AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Thu 26 Jun 2025, 6:10PM
0
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Player props & full board
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brandon Marsh LFDay-to-day
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Cristian Javier SP
Availability updated Sep 10, 7:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Hits
Brandon Marsh PHI Batter - Singles
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Hits
Kyle Schwarber PHI Batter - Singles
Jeremy Pena HOU Batter - Doubles

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.8Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2Free board19-15

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.8Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2Free board19-17

Houston Astros spread form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
2.4runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.8Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros — 0 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–11PHIAway
W6–5PHIAway
L2–3ARIHome
W3–1ARIHome
L3–4ARIHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–7HOUHome
L5–6HOUHome
W1–0ATLHome
L4–5ATLHome
W4–2ATLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Houston Astros won 1, Philadelphia Phillies won 1.

DateHouston AstrosPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Sep 9711Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 865Houston Astros

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Brandon Marsh LFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros — model preview

Deep dive into Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Jeremy Pena (HOU) Under 1.5 Doubles (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jeremy Pena for Under 1.5 in the Batter Doubles market is statistically justified due to his recent performance data. Pena's last five games show an average of only 0.2 doubles, whether at home or overall, suggesting a low likelihood of him hitting more than 1.5 doubles in the upcoming game. Moreover, his performance against the Phillies is even less promising, with an average of zero doubles in the last five games against this opponent. Despite his impressive overall and home hit streaks, Pena's hit-to-double conversion rate doesn't seem to support a high number of doubles. Therefore, the under 1.5 bet is backed by Pena's recent doubles performance, both overall and specifically against the Phillies.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Astros, or as Astros vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 26 June 2025 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 14 meetings on record
Houston Astros 8–6 across the last 14 meetings · these games average 6.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 Sep 2026Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies1–2Houston Astros
9 Sep 2026Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies11–7Philadelphia Phillies
8 Sep 2026Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies5–6Houston Astros
26 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros2–1Houston Astros
25 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros2–0Houston Astros
24 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros1–0Houston Astros
28 Aug 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies0–10Houston Astros
27 Aug 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies5–0Philadelphia Phillies
26 Aug 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
15 Mar 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros5–3Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 14 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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