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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jeremy Pena is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 90%, for a model edge of +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:09PM UTC
MLB

Jeremy Pena

HOU

+2.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -909 (1.11) · $100→$111
+2.3% Edge
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas · Indoor
Tue 16 Sep, 12:10AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.4%
Implied Probability
90.1%
Model Edge
+2.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases92.4%—90.1%1.08+2.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Jeremy Pena (HOU) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jeremy Pena for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is backed by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Pena's overall stolen base average is only 0.2, which is significantly lower than the line set at 0.5. This trend remains consistent when he plays at home, with his home stolen base average also at 0.2. Furthermore, when facing the Texas Rangers, his stolen base average drops to zero. Additionally, his overall and home caught stealing averages are both zero, indicating that he rarely attempts to steal bases. Therefore, given Pena's low stolen base averages, it is statistically unlikely that he will steal a base in the upcoming game against the Texas Rangers. This makes the Under 0.5 bet a strong choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
1.4avg hits · L5
Streak13L2075%
O 0.5100%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%

Jeremy Pena MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.4 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.6avg total bases · L5
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Jeremy Pena MLB total bases: averaging 1.6 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
2.2avg H+R+RBI · L5
Streak2L2050%

Jeremy Pena MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.2 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.2avg singles · L5

Jeremy Pena MLB singles: averaging 1.2 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg doubles · L5

Jeremy Pena MLB doubles: averaging 0.2 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5
O 0.530%

Jeremy Pena MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg stolen bases · L5

Jeremy Pena MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.2 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jeremy Pena (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jeremy Pena is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros on Tuesday 16 September at Minute Maid Park, Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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