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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 6, 2:16PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 13.5 (Total Runs)
For Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB), model win probability 85.0%, fair odds 1.18, book price -400, model edge +5.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 3 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Great American Ball Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Under
9.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Rhett Lowder SP
Availability updated Aug 5, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Pete Alonso NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.6Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.6Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
3.1runs we expect
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.6Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 3.6 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 3.6 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for Baltimore Orioles.

3.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.6
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game3.63.6
Hits / game4.63.6
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.61.6
Batter K / game3.24.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.2
Pitching K / game4.65.0
Walks allowed / game2.42.6
L5 record2-32-3

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.</p>

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-132)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Reds welcome the Orioles to Cincinnati, a keen eye on the total runs line reveals an intriguing opportunity to bet the under at 10.5. Both teams have showcased a tendency to struggle offensively in recent outings. The Reds’ lineup, while potent at times, has been inconsistent, especially against quality pitching. Meanwhile, the Orioles have faced a noticeable dip in run production on the road. Diving into the pitching matchup, you have a Reds starter whose recent form suggests he can keep Baltimore’s bats quiet, and the Orioles’ pitcher has been adept at limiting hard contact. With the potential for a tight, low-scoring affair, it’s not hard to see why the total might fall short of double digits. Given the current trends and the teams’ recent performances, taking the under seems like the smart play as these two squads battle it out on the diamond.

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 12.5 Total Runs (-263)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cincinnati Reds welcome the Baltimore Orioles, all signs point to a game that might not light up the scoreboard. Both teams have shown recent trends leaning towards lower-scoring affairs. The Reds, while potent at the plate, have faced some formidable pitching lately and rank in the bottom half for runs scored against right-handers. On the flip side, the Orioles’ lineup has been inconsistent, especially on the road, where they struggle to find their rhythm against solid pitching. Considering the Reds’ pitcher has a solid strikeout rate and the Orioles have had difficulty making contact, the potential for extended innings without runs looms large. With the total set at 12.5, I’m inclined to think this game falls well below that mark, making the ‘Under’ a compelling play in what could be a tightly contested matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 10 Total Runs (-112)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Baltimore Orioles, the stage is set for a clash that may not feature a fireworks display on the scoreboard. The Reds have been trending towards the Under recently, with their lineup struggling to find consistent rhythm against quality pitching. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense, while explosive at times, has faced challenges in hitting with runners in scoring position. Looking at the mound matchup, Cincinnati’s starter has shown a knack for keeping hitters off balance, posting a solid WHIP that suggests he’ll limit the damage. On the other side, the Orioles' pitcher has been quietly effective, giving up fewer than four runs per start in his last few outings. With both teams boasting solid bullpens and a total set at 10, it’s easy to see how this game could edge towards the Under. Expect a tactical battle that might not light up the scoreboard as much as some anticipate.

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 14.5 Total Runs (-526)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Baltimore Orioles, the stage is set for a game that might not see the scoreboard light up as much as expected. Both teams have shown a tendency for lower-scoring contests lately, with the Reds averaging just 4.5 runs over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Orioles, despite their offensive prowess, have faced some tough pitching which has led to a dip in their scoring. Now, let’s talk pitching. The Reds’ starter has been effective at keeping hitters off balance, boasting a solid ERA that suggests he can stifle even the most aggressive lineups. On the flip side, the Orioles' pitcher is no slouch either, with a strikeout rate that makes him a tough matchup for Cincinnati’s inconsistent bats. With both teams trending under in recent games, taking the under on 14.5 runs feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 8.5 Total Runs (+150)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cincinnati Reds welcome the Baltimore Orioles to Great American Ball Park, the stage is set for a matchup that leans heavily towards a lower scoring affair. Both teams have shown recent trends that suggest runs might be at a premium. The Reds, while boasting some pop in their lineup, have struggled against left-handed pitching—something the Orioles will deploy with their ace on the mound. Moreover, Cincinnati's home games have been marked by strong pitching performances, particularly from their starters, who have consistently kept opposing bats at bay. The Orioles’ lineup, despite its potential, has faltered in clutch situations recently, contributing to their inability to string together scoring opportunities. With a total set at 8.5, the combination of stellar pitching and subdued offensive outputs hints that the under is not just a possibility but a compelling narrative for this contest. Expect a tight game where runs are a hard-earned luxury.

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Baltimore Orioles Win (-120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cincinnati Reds welcome the Baltimore Orioles this Friday, the Orioles appear to be in prime form to snag a victory. They've been riding a wave of solid offensive production, with their lineup consistently putting pressure on opposing pitchers. In contrast, the Reds have struggled to find their rhythm, especially when facing teams with strong bullpens. Baltimore's pitching staff has shown remarkable resilience lately, maintaining a solid ERA and limiting walks, which could be crucial against a Reds lineup that can capitalize on free passes. Additionally, the Orioles have been exceptional on the road, with a winning record that boosts their confidence away from home. Given the combination of the Orioles’ recent form and the Reds’ vulnerabilities, backing Baltimore on the moneyline feels like a well-calculated move. This matchup has all the makings of a favorable night for the O's as they aim to keep their winning momentum going.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 13.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles -3.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles -1.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles -2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Reds, or as Reds vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Friday 3 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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