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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 26, 3:57PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Fri 3 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
15
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 10.5 Total Runs -132

The model graded 17 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $176 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 3 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Great American Ball Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.7%
The price says56.8%
Best price-132
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 10.5 High64% chance -132
Total Runs High79% chance
Total Runs Lean59% chance
Total Runs High90% chance
Total Runs Lean46% chance
Moneyline High60% chance
Total Runs High85% chance
Total Runs Lean55% chance
Total Runs High72% chance
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 90%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 10.5 · $100 returned $176

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 933 of 1,879 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
15.5
+ 14 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Tyler O'Neill RFDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Brady Singer SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 1:45AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Pete Alonso NYM Batter - Hits
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Hits

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L51-4

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L51-4

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L51-4

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 17 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds — 15 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

15
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 17 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 1 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3SFAway
L0–5SFAway
W11–5ARIAway
L3–5ARIAway
L0–9ARIAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W13–1STLAway
L1–3TBHome
W3–2TBHome
W5–3TBHome
L1–6NYYHome

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 3.6 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 3.6 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for Baltimore Orioles.

3.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.6
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game3.63.6
Hits / game4.63.6
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.61.6
Batter K / game3.24.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.2
Pitching K / game4.65.0
Walks allowed / game2.42.6
L5 record2-32-3

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 1, Baltimore Orioles won 2.

DateCincinnati RedsBaltimore OriolesWinner
Jul 532Cincinnati Reds
Jul 458Baltimore Orioles
Jul 303Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Tyler O'Neill RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Winning baseball bets for Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-132)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Reds welcome the Orioles to Cincinnati, a keen eye on the total runs line reveals an intriguing opportunity to bet the under at 10.5. Both teams have showcased a tendency to struggle offensively in recent outings. The Reds’ lineup, while potent at times, has been inconsistent, especially against quality pitching. Meanwhile, the Orioles have faced a noticeable dip in run production on the road. Diving into the pitching matchup, you have a Reds starter whose recent form suggests he can keep Baltimore’s bats quiet, and the Orioles’ pitcher has been adept at limiting hard contact. With the potential for a tight, low-scoring affair, it’s not hard to see why the total might fall short of double digits. Given the current trends and the teams’ recent performances, taking the under seems like the smart play as these two squads battle it out on the diamond.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
11
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Moneyline Baltimore Orioles ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles -1.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles -2.5 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles -3.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Reds, or as Reds vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Friday 3 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 15 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Baltimore Orioles 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Jul 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds3–2Cincinnati Reds
4 Jul 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds5–8Baltimore Orioles
3 Jul 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds0–3Baltimore Orioles
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