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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 10:18PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Washington Nationals -2.5 (Spread)
The model graded 21 markets for Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $500 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 33.6%, fair odds 2.98, book price +400, model edge +13.6%. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Washington Nationals -1.5 · $100 returned $355

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Washington Nationals
+4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Washington NationalsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • James Wood RFOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gunnar Henderson Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L52-3Free board8-8

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L52-3Free board10-9

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1CINHome
W8–2CINHome
W5–3CINHome
L3–7PHIAway
W10–4PHIAway

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Baltimore Orioles won 1, Washington Nationals won 2.

DateBaltimore OriolesWashington NationalsWinner
Jun 2846Washington Nationals
Jun 2734Washington Nationals
Jun 2631Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
James Wood RFOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Deep dive into Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals stats and odds.

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals : Under 11.5 Total Runs (-333)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Spread Washington Nationals +4.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✗ MISS
28 Jun 26 Spread Washington Nationals +2.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✗ MISS
28 Jun 26 Spread Washington Nationals -2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Sunday 28 June 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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