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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Atlanta Braves

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:44AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Truist Park, Atlanta
Outdoor
Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:15PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Atlanta Braves Moneyline -156

The model graded 2 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $164 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:15PM at Truist Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win77.0%
The price says61.0%
Best price-156

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Atlanta BravesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Atlanta Braves

  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Robert Suarez RPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tyler Mahle SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 6:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineAtlanta BravesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Atlanta Braves moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineAtlanta Braves run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Atlanta Braves spread form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Atlanta Braves total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsAtlanta Braves team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Atlanta Braves team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Atlanta Braves have won 5 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1COLHome
W6–4COLHome
W1–0LADHome
W6–5LADHome
W4–3LADHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
W3–2SDAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Atlanta Braves won 8, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateAtlanta BravesPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 9105Atlanta Braves
Jul 830Atlanta Braves
Jul 7412Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 732Atlanta Braves
Jun 663Atlanta Braves
Jun 563Atlanta Braves
Mar 2352Atlanta Braves
Mar 2081Atlanta Braves
Mar 1225Pittsburgh Pirates
Feb 2531Atlanta Braves

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
Robert Suarez RPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Joey Wentz RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Braves, or as Braves vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Friday 26 September 2025 at Truist Park. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 38 meetings on record
Atlanta Braves 22–15 across the last 38 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–10Atlanta Braves
8 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–3Atlanta Braves
7 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates12–4Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves3–2Atlanta Braves
6 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves6–3Atlanta Braves
5 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves6–3Atlanta Braves
23 Mar 2026Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–5Atlanta Braves
20 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves8–1Atlanta Braves
12 Mar 2026Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–2Pittsburgh Pirates
25 Feb 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves3–1Atlanta Braves

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 38 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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