On Friday 18 September 2026, Leeds United play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepare to host Crystal Palace, the case for backing the 'Under 6.5' total goals is compelling. Both sides have struggled to find their scoring rhythm lately. Leeds, despite a decent home record, averages just 1.4 goals per game in their last five, while their defensive solidity has seen them concede only 0.6 at home. Crystal Palace's away form tells a similar tale, with only 1 goal scored per game and a worrying trend of conceding 2.4. The xG numbers are telling, too. Both teams have lagged behind in creating significant chances, hinting at a lack of attacking potency. With Leeds' last five encounters against Palace showing a trend of low-scoring affairs, it seems highly unlikely we'll see anything close to a goal-fest. Given these trends, expecting fewer than 7 goals feels like a smart move.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Leeds United +2.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Leeds United prepares to host Crystal Palace, recent form paints a compelling picture. At home, Leeds has averaged 2.4 goals while holding opponents to just 0.6 over their last five fixtures, showcasing a formidable attacking prowess and solid defense. On the flip side, Palace’s away performances have been lackluster, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game. With Leeds’ offense generating an impressive 13.8 shots per match at home, they look set to capitalize on Palace’s defensive vulnerabilities. Moreover, Leeds boasts a strong home record of 4-1-0 in their last five at Elland Road, further indicating their dominance on familiar turf. Crystal Palace, struggling with just one win in their last five away matches, brings further optimism for a Leeds cover at -2.5. The trends suggest Leeds not only wins but does so convincingly, making this handicap bet a savvy play.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +3.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Leeds United hosts Crystal Palace, the backdrop tells a compelling story. Leeds has shown a mixed bag at home lately, with a 2-2-1 record in their last five, while Palace, despite their struggles, has a solid head-to-head record against Leeds, going 2-2-1 in their previous five encounters. Leeds averages 2.4 goals at home but has faced tougher defenses recently, while Palace's away form is shaky, conceding an average of 2.4 goals. However, they still create chances with a respectable 10 shots per game. With Leeds' defensive frailties and Palace's potential to capitalize on them, betting on Crystal Palace to cover the 3.5 handicap seems prudent. With Palace's ability to disrupt Leeds and their own attacking threats, this match could prove profitable for those backing the Eagles.
That is how our model reads Leeds United v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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