On Saturday 26 September 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, there's a compelling case for backing the Toffees with a +0.5 handicap. Recent form shows Everton has been tough to beat at home, with a solid 2-2-1 record in their last five at Goodison Park. They've averaged an impressive 1.8 goals per game at home, while conceding just 1.6. Chelsea, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, netting only 1.2 goals away and conceding 2.0 over their last five. The chances are that Everton's defense will disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm, especially considering the Toffees’ strong xG numbers, which suggest they’re creating chances even if they haven’t always converted. With Everton's recent trend of drawing matches and Chelsea's inconsistency away, taking Everton on the handicap could be a savvy move, offering a safety net for a potential draw.

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the stage is set for a tightly contested match. Everton has shown resilience at home, with a recent record of two wins and three draws. Their defense has been surprisingly sturdy, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in their last five outings. Meanwhile, Chelsea's away form has been patchy, averaging just 1.2 goals scored but allowing 2 per match. Both teams are struggling to find their attacking rhythm, reflected in their xG stats, which have been uninspiring lately. Everton's average of 1.8 goals at home contrasts sharply with Chelsea’s inability to find the net consistently on the road. With the stakes high and both sides likely to play cautiously, a draw seems not only probable but a savvy bet, especially given the 3.75 odds. In a matchup defined by defensive solidity and tentative attacks, expect the points to be shared.

That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article