On Thursday 1 October 2026, Brentford play Liverpool in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Brentford +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -185 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brentford vs Liverpool: Brentford +0.5 Goal Handicap (-185)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

When Brentford welcomes Liverpool to Gtech Community Stadium, you can’t overlook the Bees' recent form at home, boasting a strong 2-3-0 record in their last five matches. They've averaged an impressive 2.4 goals per game at home while restricting opponents to just 0.6. Their attacking arsenal has been formidable, racking up over 15 shots per match, which bodes well against a Liverpool side that’s shown vulnerability away from Anfield. Liverpool has managed only two wins in their last five away fixtures and is averaging 1.8 goals scored but also conceding an equal number. With Brentford's solid defensive stats and their ability to score, betting on Brentford with a handicap of 0.5 feels like a savvy play. The recent trends suggest Brentford can hold their ground, making this matchup ripe for an upset or at least a hard-fought draw.

Brentford vs Liverpool: Both Teams To Score: No (+170)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Brentford prepares to host Liverpool, the conditions are ripe for a game where defenses could take center stage. Brentford’s recent home form showcases a stingy defense, allowing just 0.6 goals per game at their own ground. Meanwhile, they’ve averaged a solid 2.4 goals scored in their last five home matches, but their xG suggests they’ve been efficient rather than prolific. Liverpool, despite their attacking flair, has struggled on the road, scoring only 1.8 goals in their last five away games while conceding the same number. Both teams are experiencing a dip in expected goals, which could lead to a tightly contested match. With Brentford’s defense showing resilience, the “No” on both teams to score feels like a smart bet here. Expect a low-scoring affair, where one goal might just decide the outcome.

That is how our model reads Brentford v Liverpool. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article