On Sunday 20 September 2026, Bournemouth play Liverpool in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +210 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots (+210)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Bournemouth welcomes Liverpool, all eyes can be on Adam Smith to surprise with a few shots. While his recent stats might not scream potential—averaging just 0.2 shots per game away—there’s more to the story. The Cherries are set to face a strong Liverpool side that often allows for counterattacks, which could push Smith into more offensive positions than usual. With the implied probability nudging up to 32.3% for him to register over 0.5 shots, we’re banking on a scenario where Liverpool controls possession but leaves space for Smith to exploit. Bournemouth's home crowd will surely urge him forward, and with the added pressure of facing one of the league's giants, he might just find that extra motivation to let fly. Expect a spirited performance that could easily see him hit that elusive shot mark, making this a savvy play in the player prop market.
Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+800)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Bournemouth takes on Liverpool, all eyes will be on the dynamic play of Adam Smith, especially when it comes to his shots on target. While his recent form shows a modest average of just 0.2 shots per game, the situation presents a compelling opportunity. Liverpool's attacking style often leaves gaps in their defense, inviting more adventurous play from opponents. Smith, a full-back known for his overlapping runs, could exploit those spaces. Additionally, with Bournemouth likely to spend significant time defending, the counter-attacking chances might just fall into Smith's lap. If he can get into advanced positions, the odds are favorable for him to notch at least one shot on target. Given the context and the matchup dynamics, taking Smith for over 0.5 shots on target feels like a savvy play, especially at those enticing odds.
Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 1.5 Shots (+1600)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Adam Smith steps onto the pitch against Liverpool, he’s poised for an unexpected breakout. While his recent form shows a modest average of just 0.2 shots per game, the context here flips the narrative. Liverpool's high-pressing style often leaves spaces in defense, especially away from home, and Bournemouth will likely need to counterattack effectively. Smith, playing as a right-back, can exploit those gaps and is encouraged to join the attack. Given Liverpool’s tendency to dominate possession, expect Smith to have more opportunities to unleash shots, especially as he pushes forward in search of quick transitions. The model hints at a favorable edge for him to exceed that 1.5 mark. If he finds himself in those advanced positions even a couple of times, he could surprise us. This matchup provides the perfect storm for Smith to defy expectations; sometimes taking a chance on the unexpected pays off handsomely.
That is how our model reads Bournemouth v Liverpool. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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