Here are our EPL picks for Friday 4 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Arsenal vs Chelsea: Over 7.5 Total Corners, priced at -400 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking for the best Premier League picks for same-game parlays this weekend? Here are the 3 multis our model likes most for the upcoming round, built only from legs where our number beats the price.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Over 7.5 Total Corners (-400)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
When Arsenal takes on Chelsea, expect a flurry of corners as both teams push for dominance. Arsenal’s home form has been stellar, boasting five straight wins, averaging 15.4 shots per game, which leads to plenty of opportunities for corners. Their aggressive style sees them averaging about 5 corners at home, while Chelsea, despite a mixed bag of results, often finds themselves under pressure, conceding an average of 2.6 corners away. Recent encounters between these two London rivals have been corner-heavy, with Arsenal and Chelsea both pushing for the win. Arsenal's attack is relentless, averaging 1.8 goals at home, while Chelsea's defense can be leaky, allowing 2.2 goals per game away. With both teams’ corner averages suggesting a lively contest, betting on over 7.5 corners feels like a smart play in this high-stakes showdown.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Over 8.5 Total Corners (-222)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
When Arsenal hosts Chelsea, expect a flurry of corner kicks as both teams push forward aggressively. Arsenal's recent home form has been nothing short of spectacular, boasting a perfect record and averaging 15.4 shots per match at the Emirates. With their offensive firepower, they’ve generated 1.6 corners on average during their last five home games. Chelsea, while struggling somewhat away, still manages to create opportunities and has shown resilience, averaging 2.6 corners per match in their last five outings. Historically, these fierce London derby clashes tend to produce corner totals that soar over 8.5, especially given Arsenal's propensity to attack and Chelsea's need to respond defensively. With both teams averaging a combined total of around 4.2 corners per match, the over bet here feels not just plausible but likely, as they battle for supremacy in this high-stakes encounter.
That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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