On August 6, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Diamondbacks clash with the Padres, all eyes will be on Corbin Carroll, but a glance at recent trends suggests he might not be a base-stealing threat tonight. While Carroll has showcased his speed, he's had a tough time getting on base against the likes of San Diego's pitching. The Padres' rotation has been particularly stingy, limiting opposing hitters and creating fewer opportunities for stolen bases. Additionally, Carroll's recent performance shows he’s been more selective at the plate, focusing on contact rather than aggressive base running. With Arizona facing a solid battery from San Diego, the chances of Carroll swiping two bags seem slim. The implied probability of hitting the ‘under’ here is overwhelmingly high. In a game where every run counts, expect Carroll to play it safe rather than risk it on the base paths, making the under on 1.5 stolen bases a smart play.

Ildemaro Vargas (PIT) Under 1.5 Doubles (-3333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we gear up for the Diamondbacks versus Padres clash, Ildemaro Vargas's chances of hitting over 1.5 doubles look slim. While Vargas has shown flashes of potential, he’s been facing a tough Padres pitching staff that’s quietly excelled lately. San Diego’s pitchers have consistently stifled opponents, maintaining a stingy 3.75 ERA in recent outings. Moreover, Vargas has struggled to find gaps lately, averaging less than one double every five games. With the Diamondbacks hitting a mere.235 against right-handers, the favorable matchup isn’t quite there for Vargas. The Padres’ defense has been solid too, limiting extra-base hits with their sharp fielding. Given these factors, betting on Vargas to stay under 1.5 doubles seems like a wise move. With the odds stacked against him and the Padres’ recent form, it’s hard to envision him breaking through in this one.

Xander Bogaerts (SDP) Under 1.5 Walks (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres, all eyes will be on Xander Bogaerts, particularly in the batter walks market. Bogaerts has been swinging a hot bat, but his plate discipline in recent series suggests he might not draw the walks we’d expect. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has been effective at limiting free passes, ranking in the top tier for fewest walks allowed this season. Moreover, Bogaerts has only walked in about 7% of his plate appearances lately, a sharp decline from earlier in the season. With the Diamondbacks looking to capitalize on their home field advantage and the pressure mounting in a competitive series, Bogaerts may find himself swinging rather than waiting. Given these trends, taking the under on Bogaerts’ walks feels like the right call as both teams fight tooth and nail for a crucial win.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

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