Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pavin Smith is Under 0.5 on Batter - Hits.
On Batter - Hits, our numbers say this bet wins about 36 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 36%, the price says 42%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Over 0.50 total baseslanded 7 of the last 10
Under 1.50 Hlanded 6 of the last 10
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 24, 11:13AM UTC
MLB
Pavin Smith
MLB
Pavin Smith has one live pick today: Batter - Hits Under 0.5 that pays $239 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits
Under 0.5
+139 (2.39) · $100→$239
Arizona Diamondbacks
@
Colorado Rockies
Coors Field, Denver, Colorado · Outdoor
Thu 24 Sep, 7:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 101 of 172 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
36 in 100
Predicted
0.8 Batter - Hits
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 35.8% · before adjusting for past results 33.4% · the book's price implies 41.8% · gap -6.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Hits | 33.4% | 35.8% | 41.8% | 2.79 | -8.4% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 3/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Pavin Smith Under 0.5 Hits (+139)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Colorado Rockies play Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Pavin Smith Under 0.5 Hits (+139). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +139 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Pavin Smith's lines for Thu 24 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Batter Hits 0.5
-179 best over price · 11 books
Pavin Smith's batter hits line is 0.5, best over price -179 across 11 books.
Batter Singles 0.5
+110 best over price · 4 books
Pavin Smith's batter singles line is 0.5, best over price +110 across 4 books.
Batter Runs Scored 0.5
Pavin Smith's batter runs scored line is 0.5.
Batter Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5
Pavin Smith's batter hits + runs + rbis line is 1.5.
Recent form (last 5 games)
Pavin Smith is averaging 1.2 hits, 0.4 home runs and 0.8 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.
Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases
Pavin Smith has gone over 1.5 total bases in 60% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o1.560%
o2.530%
o3.530%
o4.530%
Home / away and opponent splits
Pavin Smith is averaging 1.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.2 in away games, including his recent form against MIL.
Pavin Smith is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pavin Smith is Under 0.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a slight edge of -8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies on Thursday 24 September at Coors Field, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.