Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, August 5, 2026

As the Diamondbacks host the Padres, the spotlight shines on Xander Bogaerts, particularly in the stolen bases department. While Bogaerts has shown flashes of speed, he’s primarily been a power hitter this season, and his opportunity to swipe bags has diminished. With just a handful of successful steals on the year, it’s clear he's not running wild on the basepaths. Moreover, the Diamondbacks' pitching staff has been effective at holding runners, boasting one of the league's better pickoff rates. Combine that with the fact that Bogaerts has been more selective about taking risks on the bases, and it’s easy to see why the under on his stolen bases is worth considering. Facing a disciplined pitcher tonight, it seems likely that Bogaerts will prioritize getting on base over trying to steal, making the under 1.5 a smart play in this matchup.

Xander Bogaerts (SDP) Under 1.5 Doubles (-2000)

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres, all eyes will be on Xander Bogaerts and his quest for extra-base hits. However, considering the recent trends, taking the under on his 1.5 doubles appears to be the smart play. Bogaerts has been in a bit of a funk lately, struggling against left-handed pitching, and the D-backs' righty, who’s been reliable, isn’t the type to give up doubles easily. The Padres, as a team, haven't been lighting up the scoreboard with extra-base hits on the road either. In fact, their overall performance has dipped significantly, and with the stakes high, the pressure could further limit Bogaerts' opportunities to find gaps. Looking at his recent matchups, it's hard to envision him breaking out for two doubles in a game where the odds are stacked against him. So, betting the under seems not only wise but prudent in this challenging environment.

Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 2.5 Singles (-286)

As the Diamondbacks prepare to host the Padres, all eyes should be on Jackson Merrill as he steps to the plate. Despite the buzz around his potential, recent trends reveal that he’s been struggling to find consistent contact. With a batting average that’s dipped below expectations, Merrill has only managed to convert singles against elite pitching, and tonight he faces a formidable opponent. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has been on fire lately, boasting a strikeout rate in the upper tier of the league, creating a challenging environment for any batter. Additionally, the Padres' collective struggle against right-handed pitchers compounds Merrill’s chances of racking up hits. With an implied probability of 74.1% for him to stay under 2.5 singles, it seems likely that we’ll see him struggle in this matchup. Betting the under on Merrill’s singles could be a savvy play given the current dynamics.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.