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Today's EPL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Match

Every EPL match coming up, graded and ranked best first. All 19 are below, top pick free.

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19 matches coming up, and the first pick of every match is free

Best EPL bet today: Leeds United at Arsenal: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA at +390, long shot confidence. As Arsenal prepares to host Leeds United, the recent trends suggest a potential stalemate. 19 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Leeds United v Arsenal
Leeds United at Arsenal: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA +390
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win19.6%
$50 returns$245.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Leeds United v ArsenalLEE v ARS Leeds United at Arsenal: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA Long-shot20% chance +390
Fulham v Ipswich TownFUL v IPS Fulham at Ipswich Town: Fulham Moneyline h2h_Fulham_NA Lean42% chance +150
Brighton and Hove Albion v SunderlandBrighton and Hove Albion v Sunderland Brighton and Hove Albion at Sunderland: Sunderland Moneyline h2h_Sunderland_NA Long-shot33% chance +200
Bournemouth v ChelseaBOU v CHE Bournemouth at Chelsea: Bournemouth Moneyline h2h_Bournemouth_NA Long-shot25% chance +285
Brentford v Aston VillaBRE v AVL Brentford at Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline h2h_Aston Villa_NA Long-shot36% chance +160
Everton v Hull CityEVE v HUL Everton at Hull City: Hull City Moneyline h2h_Hull City_NA Long-shot33% chance +260
Nottingham Forest v Crystal PalaceNOT v CRY Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace: Under Total Goals 3.5 High74% chance -357
Manchester City v LiverpoolMCI v LIV Manchester City at Liverpool: Manchester City Moneyline h2h_Manchester City_NA Long-shot39% chance +150
Newcastle United v Coventry CityNEW v COV Newcastle United at Coventry City: Under Total Goals 1.5 Long-shot32% chance +360
Chelsea v EvertonCHE v EVE Chelsea at Everton: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA Long-shot25% chance +275
Hull City v FulhamHUL v FUL Hull City at Fulham: Hull City Moneyline h2h_Hull City_NA Long-shot27% chance +410
Ipswich Town v Manchester CityIPS v MCI Ipswich Town at Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline h2h_Manchester City_NA High83% chance -476
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
15 more picks on the board
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EPL • LEE vs. ARS 2026-10-10 11:30 •
vs.
Home Arsenal
Last 5Leeds UnitedDWDDWArsenalLWWWW
Full preview: Leeds United at Arsenal →
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Leeds United at Arsenal: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA
Chance to win 19.6%
The price says 19.3%
Best price +390

Arsenal vs Leeds United: Draw Moneyline (+390)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Arsenal prepares to host Leeds United, the recent trends suggest a potential stalemate. While Arsenal boasts an impressive home record—winning four of their last five games and averaging two goals scored—Leeds has proven resilient despite their struggles, managing a couple of draws in their last five outings. Both teams have been relatively cautious defensively, with Arsenal conceding just 0.2 goals per home game lately, while Leeds has kept it tight, allowing only 1.4 goals on the road. The Gunners have historically dominated this matchup, winning the last five encounters, but Leeds has shown the grit to snatch points unexpectedly. Given Arsenal's propensity for high possession and Leeds' counter-attacking style, a tight draw seems likely, with neither side able to fully capitalize on their chances. The value on a draw at nearly 5.0 offers an intriguing proposition for savvy bettors looking for a smart play.

EPL • FUL vs. IPS 2026-10-10 14:00 •
Fulham Away
vs.
Last 5FulhamDDLLLIpswich TownLWLLW
Full preview: Fulham at Ipswich Town →
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Fulham at Ipswich Town: Fulham Moneyline h2h_Fulham_NA
Chance to win 42.2%
The price says 37.9%
Best price +150

Ipswich Town vs Fulham: Fulham Moneyline (+150)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Ipswich Town prepares to host Fulham, the recent form of both teams sheds light on a compelling bet on the visitors. Ipswich has stumbled at home with a 2-3 record over their last five matches, conceding an average of 2.2 goals, while their own attack has mustered only 1.4 goals per game. Fulham, despite their struggles, has a slight edge with a more resilient away performance, averaging just over 1 goal while allowing only 1.6. Ipswich's inability to turn chances into goals is evident in their xG stats, which have been stagnant at zero. On the other hand, Fulham’s relentless pressure, reflected in their average of 14.4 shots per game, could be the key to breaking through. With Ipswich's historical struggles against Fulham adding extra motivation, backing the away side feels like a savvy play.

Fulham at Ipswich Town · Total Goals 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 53.4%
EPL • vs. SUN 2026-10-10 14:00 •
Last 5SunderlandLLDWL
Full preview: Brighton and Hove Albion at Sunderland →
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Brighton and Hove Albion at Sunderland: Sunderland Moneyline h2h_Sunderland_NA
Chance to win 33.1%
The price says 31.8%
Best price +200

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Sunderland Moneyline (+200)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Sunderland prepares to take on Brighton, there's a palpable sense of opportunity, especially considering their recent home form. While they’ve had a rocky patch overall, their home record reveals a flicker of promise—two wins out of five. The Black Cats have been creating chances, averaging over 14 shots at home, but have struggled to translate that into goals, with only 0.6 scored per game at home. Brighton, on the other hand, has found themselves vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match on the road. Sunderland's pressing style may exploit this weakness, and with a solid crowd behind them, the home advantage could be crucial. The expected goals metrics suggest Sunderland can finally capitalize on their chances. Given the trends and the odds, backing Sunderland to secure a win appears to be a compelling bet that could pay dividends come matchday.

EPL • BOU vs. CHE 2026-10-10 14:00 •
vs.
Home Chelsea
Last 5ChelseaLDLWW
Full preview: Bournemouth at Chelsea →
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Bournemouth at Chelsea: Bournemouth Moneyline h2h_Bournemouth_NA
Chance to win 24.6%
The price says 24.7%
Best price +285

Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Bournemouth Moneyline (+285)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Chelsea takes on Bournemouth, all eyes should be on the Cherries, who are quietly finding their rhythm. Despite a shaky away record, Bournemouth's resilience shines through in their recent performances. Their last five outings have seen them score an average of 1.4 goals while only conceding 1.2, reflecting a solid underlying structure. Meanwhile, Chelsea's form at home hasn’t been stellar, with a 2-1-2 record suggesting vulnerability. Their xG numbers tell a similar story—limiting their chances while allowing opponents to generate opportunities. Bournemouth's defense may capitalize on Chelsea's inconsistencies, especially considering they’ve faced each other five times recently with Bournemouth grabbing two wins. At 3.85, Bournemouth’s odds are enticing, suggesting value in a potential upset. With recent trends favoring a competitive edge, backing Bournemouth feels like a savvy play in this Premier League clash.

Bournemouth at Chelsea · Total Goals 6.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 93.0%
Bournemouth at Chelsea · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 22.6%
EPL • BRE vs. AVL 2026-10-10 14:00 •
Brentford Away
vs.
Last 5BrentfordWDDDWAston VillaWLDLL
Full preview: Brentford at Aston Villa →
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Brentford at Aston Villa: Aston Villa Moneyline h2h_Aston Villa_NA
Chance to win 35.7%
The price says 36.5%
Best price +160

Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa Moneyline (+160)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Aston Villa prepares to host Brentford, recent form suggests the home side has a stronger foothold in this matchup. While Villa's last five games have yielded mixed results, their home form is notably better, with a record of 2-0-3. They've shown glimpses of promise, averaging two goals at home, even if their xG has looked less than stellar lately. Brentford, on the other hand, faces challenges on the road, struggling with a 0-3-2 record in their last five away outings. They’ve also averaged just one goal while conceding nearly two, indicating vulnerabilities in defense. Villa's historical edge against Brentford, with a 2-1-2 record in their last five encounters, adds another layer of confidence. Given Villa’s ability to capitalize at home, backing them for the win seems like a shrewd play.

EPL • EVE vs. HUL 2026-10-11 13:00 •
Everton Away
vs.
Home Hull City
Last 5EvertonWDDDWHull CityLDDWW
Full preview: Everton at Hull City →
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Everton at Hull City: Hull City Moneyline h2h_Hull City_NA
Chance to win 33.3%
The price says 26.2%
Best price +260

Hull City vs Everton: Hull City Moneyline (+260)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Hull City prepares to host Everton, the home team’s recent form paints an intriguing picture. They've shown a solid home record with three wins in their last five at the KCOM, while Everton has struggled significantly on the road, failing to secure a win in their last five away matches. Hull's defensive resilience is impressive, conceding just 0.2 goals per game at home, while Everton has averaged a mere 0.8 goals away. In terms of expected goals, both sides are practically stagnant, but Hull’s attacking numbers are slightly more promising, averaging 1 goal at home. With fans behind them and Everton's away woes, Hull looks poised to capitalize on any defensive lapses. It’s not just about the stats; it’s about momentum. Hull’s confidence and home advantage could very well be the X-factor in what promises to be a tightly contested affair. Backing Hull City for the win feels like the right call here.

Everton at Hull City · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.8%
EPL • NOT vs. CRY 2026-10-11 13:00 •
Full preview: Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace →
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Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace: Under Total Goals 3.5
Chance to win 74.4%
The price says 74.3%
Best price -357

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-357)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Crystal Palace welcomes Nottingham Forest, the narrative suggests a clash where goals might be scarce. Palace’s recent form at home shows they’re struggling, averaging just 1.2 goals while conceding 2.2 over their last five matches. With an xG average that’s alarmingly low, it’s clear their offense has been toothless. Nottingham Forest, despite a decent away scoring average of 2.8, has faced four straight losses against Palace, not exactly a confidence booster. Their own recent away performances feature a low xG and a tendency to create fewer clear-cut chances. Both sides seem to be locked in a defensive mindset, making ‘Under 3.5’ a compelling market choice. The combined stats indicate that with Palace’s home woes and Forest’s past struggles at Selhurst Park, we’re likely in for a tight encounter with limited scoring opportunities.

Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.8%
EPL • MCI vs. LIV 2026-10-11 15:30 •
vs.
Home Liverpool
Last 5Manchester CityWWWWWLiverpoolWDWDD
Full preview: Manchester City at Liverpool →
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Manchester City at Liverpool: Manchester City Moneyline h2h_Manchester City_NA
Chance to win 38.6%
The price says 37.4%
Best price +150

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline (+150)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the current form heavily favors the visitors. City is riding a wave of momentum with an impressive five-game unbeaten streak, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per match. In stark contrast, Liverpool has struggled at home, managing only two wins in their last five outings and scoring just 1.4 goals per game. Liverpool’s defense has been leaky, allowing opponents to notch an average of one goal against them at Anfield, while City’s attacking prowess has been relentless. Their ability to create chances, averaging 17.4 shots per away game, sets them up well for this crucial encounter. The recent head-to-heads have also been closely contested, but with City’s sharper attacking stats and solid form, they look poised to take all three points. Backing Manchester City to win feels like a savvy play in this electrifying clash.

EPL • NEW vs. COV 2026-10-12 19:00 •
Show Picks
Newcastle United at Coventry City: Under Total Goals 1.5
Chance to win 31.5%
The price says 20.7%
Best price +360

Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 1.5 Total Goals (+360)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

When Coventry City hosts Newcastle United, the stage is set for a clash that might not produce fireworks. Coventry's recent form is concerning, with a grim scoring average of just 0.2 goals per game over their last five outings. Their xG is alarmingly low, reflecting a troubling inability to create meaningful chances. Even at home, they’ve struggled, averaging only 1.6 goals scored while conceding 1.6. On the flip side, Newcastle's away performance has not been much better, with just 0.8 goals scored in their last five away games. Both teams seem to be struggling to find the back of the net, and the trend suggests a defensive battle rather than a goal-fest. With the total set at under 1.5, it’s hard to see this match exceeding that threshold given their lackluster attacking form. Expect a low-scoring affair here.

EPL • CHE vs. EVE 2026-10-17 11:30 •
Chelsea Away
vs.
Home Everton
Show Picks
Chelsea at Everton: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA
Chance to win 24.9%
The price says 25.2%
Best price +275

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the stage is set for a tightly contested match. Recent form reveals that both teams have struggled to find their scoring touch, with Everton averaging just 1.2 goals per game in their last five outings and Chelsea not faring much better at 1.2 away goals. The Toffees' defense has been solid at home, conceding only 0.6 goals per game. With recent head-to-head encounters showing a pattern of draws—Everton has seen three draws in their last five clashes against Chelsea—it’s hard to overlook the potential for another stalemate. The implied probability of a draw at 25.2% offers enticing value, especially given the defensive tactics both teams have employed lately. Expect a tactical battle that could easily end without a winner, making the draw a compelling play.

Chelsea at Everton · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 33.7%
EPL • HUL vs. FUL 2026-10-17 14:00 •
Hull City Away
vs.
Home Fulham
Show Picks
Hull City at Fulham: Hull City Moneyline h2h_Hull City_NA
Chance to win 26.8%
The price says 18.7%
Best price +410

Fulham vs Hull City: Hull City Moneyline (+410)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Fulham prepares to host Hull City, the momentum clearly favors the visitors. While Fulham's form at home has been shaky, with just one win in their last five, Hull has shown resilience on the road, managing two wins and a draw in their last five outings. Their recent head-to-head record is telling too; Hull has won both of their last encounters against Fulham. The stats paint a picture of Hull being more efficient, averaging 1.4 goals in away matches compared to Fulham's 1.4 at home but with a slightly leaky defense, conceding an average of 1.6 goals. Fulham's xG has been lacking, and their inability to convert opportunities may be their downfall. With Hull's attacking prowess and Fulham's struggles, betting on Hull City to come out on top feels like a sound gamble.

Hull City at Fulham · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 23.3%
EPL • IPS vs. MCI 2026-10-17 14:00 •
Show Picks
Ipswich Town at Manchester City: Manchester City Moneyline h2h_Manchester City_NA
Chance to win 83.3%
The price says 77.2%
Best price -476

Manchester City vs Ipswich Town: Manchester City Moneyline (-476)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester City prepares to host Ipswich Town, the home side’s form is nothing short of spectacular. City is riding high with a perfect home record, scoring an impressive average of 2.4 goals while conceding just 1.2 in their last five home games. Their attacking prowess is evident with nearly 15 shots per game, showcasing their relentless offensive style. Ipswich, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, mustering only a 1.4 goal average while conceding 2.0. Their last five encounters against City have yielded zero wins, which adds to the daunting task they face. With the Citizens boasting a robust expected goals (xG) average and a well-oiled attack, it’s hard to see Ipswich pulling off an upset. Backing Manchester City to win is a no-brainer here, given their dominance and Ipswich’s recent woes.

Ipswich Town at Manchester City · Total Goals 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 5.0%
EPL • LIV vs. BRE 2026-10-17 14:00 •
Liverpool Away
vs.
Home Brentford
Show Picks
Liverpool at Brentford: Under Total Goals 6.5
Chance to win 96.3%
The price says 94.0%
Best price -5000

Brentford vs Liverpool: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-5000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Brentford prepares to host Liverpool, the narrative leans heavily towards a low-scoring affair. Recent trends show Brentford solid defensively at home, allowing just 0.6 goals per game while averaging 2.4 scored. Meanwhile, Liverpool's away form paints a similar picture, with their last five matches yielding an average of 1.8 goals but often struggling against teams that close down space effectively. Even with an implied probability suggesting a high chance for fewer than 6.5 goals, the xG statistics reflect both teams' struggles to convert chances into meaningful scoring threats. Brentford has been particularly stingy, with their opponents managing only 0.8 xG against them in their last five outings. Factor in Brentford's mixed record against Liverpool, and it’s easy to foresee a tightly contested game where both sides focus more on securing points than on flamboyant attacking play. Under 6.5 total goals seems not just likely, but almost certain.

Liverpool at Brentford · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 25.2%
EPL • AVL vs. NEW 2026-10-17 16:30 •
Show Picks
Aston Villa at Newcastle United: Under Total Goals 6.5
Chance to win 95.4%
The price says 94.3%
Best price -5000

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-5000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Newcastle United prepares to host Aston Villa, the signs point toward a low-scoring affair. Newcastle's recent form at home has seen them average just 2.4 goals scored while conceding 1.4, reflecting a balanced yet restrained attacking approach. With an expected goals (xG) output that hasn't been particularly high, their last five matches showcase a clear trend towards tighter contests. Aston Villa, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, averaging only 1.4 goals scored while facing an opponent average of 1.8. Their xG numbers also aren't inspiring, suggesting a lack of clear-cut chances. With both teams capable of defensive solidity and a tendency to play cautiously, betting on 'Under 6.5' total goals seems prudent. The statistical trends and recent performances align, hinting that this match might not see a barrage of goals.

EPL • CRY vs. 2026-10-18 13:00 •
Show Picks
Crystal Palace at Brighton and Hove Albion: Crystal Palace Moneyline h2h_Crystal Palace_NA
Chance to win 19.0%
The price says 16.7%
Best price +470

Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace Moneyline (+470)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As we dive into the clash between Brighton and Hove Albion and Crystal Palace, it’s hard to overlook the recent struggles of the Eagles. Sure, their last five outings have seen just one win, but they’ve faced some tough opposition. Despite a shaky away record, they’ve managed to muster an average of 1.2 goals per game. Notably, their Expected Goals (xG) numbers haven’t reflected their potential; they’re sitting at an alarming 0 over those last five matches. Yet, Crystal's resilience in the Premier League can’t be underestimated. The rivalry adds a layer of unpredictability, where form often flies out the window. Brighton, on the other hand, has shown vulnerability, especially defensively. With a tendency to concede around 2.2 goals in their recent fixtures, Palace could exploit this. Given the odds and the intensity of this rivalry, a bet on Crystal Palace to take the win feels like a gamble worth taking.

Crystal Palace at Brighton and Hove Albion · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 21.1%
EPL • MUN vs. LEE 2026-10-18 13:00 •
Show Picks
Manchester United at Leeds United: Leeds United Moneyline h2h_Leeds United_NA
Chance to win 32.8%
The price says 34.0%
Best price +180

Leeds United vs Manchester United: Leeds United Moneyline (+180)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Leeds United prepare to host Manchester United, recent form suggests this could be their moment. Leeds' home record has been solid, with two wins in their last five, while they’ve kept opponents to just 0.6 goals per game at Elland Road. They’ve shown resilience, scoring an average of 1.8 goals in their last five home matches. Meanwhile, Manchester United has struggled on the road, managing only a 1.2 goals-per-game average and facing a defense that seems to be rounding into form. The xG numbers hint at a tight contest, but Leeds’ ability to create chances—averaging 13 shots at home—could be the key. With the energy of the home crowd behind them, Leeds are primed to capitalize on Manchester’s away woes, making them an enticing pick for this matchup.

Manchester United at Leeds United · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.4%
EPL • SUN vs. BOU 2026-10-18 13:00 •
Sunderland Away
vs.
Show Picks
Sunderland at Bournemouth: Draw Moneyline h2h_Draw_NA
Chance to win 24.6%
The price says 26.4%
Best price +260

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Draw Moneyline (+260)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Bournemouth prepares to host Sunderland, both teams are stumbling into this matchup with lackluster form, making a draw feel like a strong possibility. Bournemouth's recent home record of 1-3-1, coupled with a modest average of 1.4 goals scored at home, hints at their struggles to find the net consistently. Conversely, Sunderland, despite boasting a slightly better away record, has only managed to net 1.8 goals in their last five trips, while conceding an average of 2. With both sides unable to create significant chances—illustrated by their low xG figures—this could easily lead to a stalemate. The past encounters also suggest parity, with Bournemouth's last five meetings against Sunderland resulting in just one victory for either side. Given the current dynamics, a draw seems not just plausible, but likely, making it an appealing betting option for this clash.

EPL • ARS vs. NOT 2026-10-18 15:30 •
Arsenal Away
vs.
Show Picks
Arsenal at Nottingham Forest: Under Total Goals 1.5
Chance to win 26.5%
The price says 25.1%
Best price +285

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Under 1.5 Total Goals (+285)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Nottingham Forest gears up to host Arsenal, the signs point towards a low-scoring affair. Forest has struggled offensively lately, averaging a mere 0.4 goals at home over their last five games, and their expected goals (xG) sit alarmingly low. Meanwhile, Arsenal, despite their solid form away from home, have often found it difficult to break down resolute defenses like Forest's. In fact, Forest's last five encounters against Arsenal have yielded only two wins for the Gunners, with many matches characterized by tight margins. With Forest allowing just 0.8 goals per game in their last home outings, and an overall trend of underwhelming scoring, banking on under 1.5 goals appears not only feasible but quite likely. The combination of Forest's defensive solidity and Arsenal's occasional attacking struggles makes this an enticing bet for those looking to capitalize on a potentially subdued contest.

Arsenal at Nottingham Forest · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 23.8%
Arsenal at Nottingham Forest · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 16.2%
EPL • COV vs. TOT 2026-10-19 19:00 •
Show Picks
Coventry City at Tottenham Hotspur: Under Total Goals 5.5
Chance to win 98.3%
The price says 89.3%
Best price -1429

Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-1429)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Tottenham hosts Coventry City, the evidence strongly points towards a low-scoring affair. Spurs have struggled at home lately, averaging just 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.2, which reflects their disjointed attack. Their xG stats tell a similar story—zero expected goals over their last five, highlighting a concerning lack of creativity. Meanwhile, Coventry has been even more lackluster away, netting only 1.2 goals per game and maintaining a dismal xG of zero as well. With Spurs' last five matches yielding an average of only 0.4 goals, and Coventry not exactly lighting up the scoreboard, it's hard to envision this game surpassing the 5.5 goals line. The trend of low-scoring matches reinforces the notion that this encounter will likely be tightly contested, leaning heavily toward the Under.

Coventry City at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 63.6%
Coventry City at Tottenham Hotspur · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 20.5%

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Quick answer

What are EPL picks?

EPL picks are model-generated predictions for Premier League betting markets including 1X2 (match result), Asian Handicap, totals (over/under goals) and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming EPL match with predictions across all major markets. Expand any match to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

EPL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
1X2 (Match Result) Home win, draw or away win over the full match. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Asian Handicap Win by more than a handicap margin, with the draw removed. When one side is expected to dominate or the match should be close.
Totals (O/U Goals) Over or under the combined goals scored in the match. Match tempo, attacking form, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — shots, goals, assists, cards. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read EPL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a match. Matches are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that fixture.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated EPL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per match estimate true outcome probabilities across every major EPL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

EPL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are EPL picks?

EPL picks are our model's call on which side to back in an EPL match. The model reads past results and the current bookmaker prices, then names the side it rates best and says why in plain words.

What is the difference between EPL picks and EPL best bets?

This page is the full list, and best bets is the short list. Picks cover every EPL match on the card across every market, while best bets keeps only the ones the model rates strongest that day. If you want the model's top selections only, use Picks.

What types of EPL picks are available?

We post EPL picks on who wins or whether it is a draw, total goals, both teams to score, and handicaps. Game and player markets sit together inside each match, with the strongest pick at the top.

How often are EPL picks updated?

They refresh through the day, and again whenever team news or the bookmaker prices move. Later prices carry more information, so the list you see close to start time is the one to trust.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick is named when our model rates a side better than the bookmaker's price says. The wider that gap, the higher the confidence we show, and confidence is a lean over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Can I use EPL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes, any pick on this page can be a leg in a multi. Each extra leg makes the whole bet harder to land, so two or three strong legs beat a long list. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the EPL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee EPL picks will win?

No, and nobody can. EPL picks are our best read of what is likely, and good picks still lose, so only ever stake money you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

What time do EPL picks come out?

As soon as the day's matches and prices are up. The list is rebuilt several times a day, and again close to start time when team news and prices move, so the version you see nearest kick-off is the one to read. Most matches land on the weekend, with midweek rounds as well.

Do you pick every EPL match?

No. We only name a side when our model likes it more than the price suggests. Some matches get nothing at all, and that is on purpose - a quiet day here means there was nothing worth backing, not that something is broken.

What does HIGH confidence mean?

We say it in words, not numbers. HIGH means our model likes the pick the most. LEAN means it likes it, but less. LONG-SHOT means a big price that wins less often and pays more when it lands. Confidence is how it should go over a long run of bets, never a promise on one match.

Do I have to pay to see the EPL picks?

The first pick in every match is free to read, with no signup. The rest unlock with a subscription. Either way every pick we publish is graded in public, wins and losses, on our results page.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

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