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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 6:47PM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies and backs Washington Nationals -0.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $510.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 10:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Washington Nationals -0.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings +410

The model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $510 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 10:05PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win38.6%
The price says19.6%
Best price+410
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Washington Nationals -0.5 Long-shot39% chance +410
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean50% chance Members
Spread Members only High60% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean59% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot27% chance Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 92% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 81% Members
Batter - Hits × 7 props Highup to 93% Members
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 86% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Walks × 4 props Highup to 99% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 5 props Highup to 90% Members
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 93% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 84% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies last met on Thu 6 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Washington Nationals 3.5 · $100 returned $700

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 164 of 342 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 20
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Washington Nationals
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Washington NationalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Matt Waldron RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Orlando Ribalta RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Jonathan Bowlan RPDay-to-day
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Jesus Luzardo SPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP
Availability updated Sep 19, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Miles Mikolas STL Pitcher - Strikeouts
Alec Bohm Batter - Total Bases
Jacob Young WSN Batter - Hits
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Total Bases
Miles Mikolas STL Pitcher - Hits Allowed

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.8runs we expect
L5 RF4.2L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–10NYMAway
L3–6NYMAway
W3–0NYMAway
W3–0WSHAway
L3–6WSHAway
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–1STLAway
W8–5STLAway
L0–3PHIHome
W6–3PHIHome
W6–5LAAHome

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 7, Washington Nationals won 3.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesWashington NationalsWinner
Sep 1630Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 1536Washington Nationals
Aug 673Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 5410Washington Nationals
Aug 450Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 363Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 25105Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2454Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 23149Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2214Washington Nationals

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Jesus Luzardo SPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Connelly Early SPOUT
Matt Waldron RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Orlando Ribalta RPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Ken Waldichuk RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Bryson Stott (PHI) Under 0.5 Walks (-455), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 53 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 34–18 across the last 53 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals0–3Philadelphia Phillies
15 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals6–3Washington Nationals
6 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies7–3Philadelphia Phillies
5 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies4–10Washington Nationals
4 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies5–0Philadelphia Phillies
3 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies6–3Philadelphia Phillies
25 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals5–10Philadelphia Phillies
24 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals4–5Philadelphia Phillies
23 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals9–14Philadelphia Phillies
22 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals4–1Washington Nationals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 53 meetings on file.

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