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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Fri 22 Aug 2025, 10:45PM
2
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Washington Nationals (Moneyline)
For Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 59.5%, fair odds 1.68, book price +140, model edge +17.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 22 Aug 2025, 10:45PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Washington Nationals
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Washington NationalsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Trevor Williams SPOut
  • Jake Irvin SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Brad Lord RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
CJ Abrams WSN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taijuan Walker PHI Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Bell WSN Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L52-3Win rec0-11

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L52-3ATS2-14

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.4implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Kyle Schwarber. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals stats and odds.</p>

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits (-227)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kyle Schwarber for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strategic choice based on his recent performance data. Schwarber's average hits over the last five games overall is 0.8, and when playing at home, it drops to 0.6. Even when facing the Nationals, his average hits are only 1.2. These averages all fall below the 1.5 line set for this bet. Despite his current hit streaks, the averages suggest that it's unlikely he'll exceed 1.5 hits in the upcoming game. Furthermore, his plate appearance (PA) averages, which range from 4.4 to 4.8, indicate that he typically doesn't get enough opportunities to score more than 1.5 hits. Hence, the Under 1.5 bet is statistically sound.

Trea Turner (PHI) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet on Trea Turner's stolen bases is backed by his recent performance data. Turner's last five games show an average of 0.4 stolen bases overall and at home, suggesting that he typically doesn't steal more than half a base per game. Moreover, his performance against the opponent team is even less impressive, with an average of zero stolen bases in the last five games. This is further compounded by the fact that the opponent team has caught an average of 0.2 players stealing bases in their last five games. Despite his current hit streaks, Turner's stealing base statistics do not indicate a high likelihood of him stealing a base in the upcoming game. Therefore, the under 0.5 bet on Turner's stolen bases is a statistically sound choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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