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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:08AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
52.8%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -122

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $182 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:10PM at American Family Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win85.7%
The price says54.9%
Best price-122
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Milwaukee Brewers High86% chance -122
Spread Long-shot24% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings High65% chance
Spread Long-shot21% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean52% chance
Moneyline Lean46% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 13 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Singles × 11 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 3 props Highup to 83%
Batter - Walks × 8 props Highup to 92%
Pitcher - Walks × 3 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Total Bases × 4 props Highup to 82%
Batter - Runs Scored × 4 props Highup to 82%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Milwaukee Brewers · $100 returned $176

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Milwaukee BrewersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Abner Uribe RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 6:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Esmerlyn Valdez Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Hits
Nick Gonzales Batter - Singles
Braxton Ashcraft Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Jhostynxon Garcia Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4Free board10-8

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent results

Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3TEXHome
W6–1TEXHome
W8–2NYMAway
W8–1NYMAway
L2–3NYMAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
W3–2SDAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 2.2 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.0 (2-3); Milwaukee Brewers pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

2.2
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
3.0
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game2.23.0
Hits / game3.03.6
Home runs / game0.80.2
Walks drawn / game1.21.4
Batter K / game2.03.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.03.0
Pitching K / game2.23.0
Walks allowed / game0.62.8
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Milwaukee Brewers won 4, Pittsburgh Pirates won 6.

DateMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 652Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 542Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 442Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 334Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 12514Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1123Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1167Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 2650Milwaukee Brewers
Apr 2536Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 2406Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Abner Uribe RPOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Brice Turang Under 1.5 Hits (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -2 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Brewers, or as Brewers vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at American Family Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 52.8% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 48 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 29–19 across the last 48 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers5–2Milwaukee Brewers
5 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers4–2Milwaukee Brewers
4 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers4–2Milwaukee Brewers
3 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Jul 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates14–5Pittsburgh Pirates
11 Jul 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–2Pittsburgh Pirates
26 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers5–0Milwaukee Brewers
25 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers3–6Pittsburgh Pirates
24 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers0–6Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Sep 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–10Milwaukee Brewers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 48 meetings on file.

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