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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:08PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Wed 13 Aug 2025, 6:10PM
9
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB), model win probability 58.4%, fair odds 1.71, book price -105, model edge +7.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 13 Aug 2025, 6:10PM at American Family Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
+ 8 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Milwaukee BrewersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Milwaukee Brewers

  • DL Hall RPOut
  • Kyle Harrison SPOut
  • Brandon Lockridge LFOut
  • David Hamilton 3BOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jacob Misiorowski SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 2:06AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Keller PIT Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Keller PIT Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Joey Ortiz MIL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tommy Pham PIT Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA2.8Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0Win rec6-6

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA2.8Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0ATS5-9

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
3.8implied team total
L5 RF5.2L5 RA2.8Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.2 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Milwaukee Brewers pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

5.8
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game5.84.2
Hits / game8.410.2
Home runs / game0.61.0
Walks drawn / game3.84.2
Batter K / game5.68.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.23.6
Pitching K / game4.45.6
Walks allowed / game2.62.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+180)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates is driven by the model's prediction and the team's recent performance. The model's edge of 5.9% indicates that the Pirates are undervalued in this match-up. Despite the Brewers' strong home record, they have struggled against the Pirates, with a 2-3 record in their last five encounters. The Pirates have also been defensively solid on the road, allowing an average of only 3.6 runs in their last five away games. This is significantly lower than the Brewers' home scoring average of 5.6 runs, suggesting the Pirates' defense could limit the Brewers' scoring. Thus, the combination of the Pirates' recent performance against the Brewers, their strong defense, and the model's edge makes a bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates a good choice.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+177)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a solid bet for this game despite being the away team. The Brewers may have a strong home record, but their performance against the Pirates specifically is less impressive, with a 2-3 record in their last five match-ups. Additionally, the Pirates have been successful in limiting runs scored by their opponents, with an average of 3.8 runs allowed overall and 3.6 on the road. This is significantly less than the Brewers' average runs scored at home. The Pirates' ability to suppress runs, combined with their recent success against the Brewers, suggests they have a strong chance of winning. The model prediction and edge also support this, indicating that the Pirates are undervalued in this match-up, making them a smart bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 August 2025 at American Family Field. The model has generated 9 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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