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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 9:15PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline)
The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $182 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 85.7%, fair odds 1.17, book price -122, model edge +30.8%. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:10PM at American Family Field.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Milwaukee Brewers · $100 returned $176

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Milwaukee BrewersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Joey Ortiz SSDay-to-day
  • Cooper Pratt SSOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Esmerlyn Valdez Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Gonzales Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Braxton Ashcraft Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jhostynxon Garcia Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1Free board9-8

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent results

Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5.

Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3MINHome
W4–3MINHome
L6–8MINHome
W5–2PITHome
W4–2PITHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 1.8 runs per game (2-3) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.0 (3-2); Milwaukee Brewers pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

1.8
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
3.0
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game1.83.0
Hits / game3.04.6
Home runs / game0.40.4
Walks drawn / game1.21.2
Batter K / game1.83.4
Earned runs allowed / game2.42.6
Pitching K / game2.03.6
Walks allowed / game0.63.6
L5 record2-33-2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Milwaukee Brewers won 3, Pittsburgh Pirates won 4.

DateMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 652Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 542Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 442Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 334Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 12514Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1167Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1123Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Pratt SSOUT
Sal Frelick RFOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Brice Turang Under 1.5 Hits (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Moneyline Milwaukee Brewers ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates ✗ MISS
06 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Milwaukee Brewers ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✗ MISS
06 Aug 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 ✗ MISS
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Brewers, or as Brewers vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at American Family Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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