Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints Same Game Multi Tips & Prediction

Darcy Wilson's away form is the key driver here. Over his last seven road trips, Wilson has cleared this line six times — an 86% hit rate that dwarfs his overall 8-from-13 mark and tells you something meaningful about how he performs when travelling. In those away games specifically, he's averaging 1.0 goal, 2.2 shots at goal and 6.4 score involvements per game, with a 38.3% goal accuracy — a far cry from his flat overall numbers and a sign the away context genuinely suits him. Against Richmond specifically, he's averaging 0.7 goals in away contests. The model projects 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 1.4% edge over the implied 59.5% probability baked into the $1.68 price. That's not a screaming margin, but combined with that 6/7 away hit rate and the volume of shots he's generating, Wilson represents a measured, defensible play here.

Hugo Ralphsmith (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (+110)

Ralphsmith shapes as a genuine value play at $2.10 here. The model has him projecting 0.7 goals against a line of just 0.5, generating a 9.1% edge over the implied probability of 47.6% — that's meaningful separation in a market where anything above 5% is worth serious attention. The home context is key. Across his last five home games, Ralphsmith is averaging 0.8 goals and 1.4 shots at goal, with a 43.3% goal accuracy that climbs sharply compared to his overall 33.3% clip — he clearly lifts at the MCG. His 3.6 inside-50s and 4 score involvements per home game show he's getting into the right areas regularly. Against St Kilda specifically, he's averaged a goal in both home and overall matchups across the L5 sample. He's also hit this line in two straight and 2 of his last 3 overall. Solid edge, worth backing.