Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors) Under 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Warriors head to Phoenix, all eyes will be on Stephen Curry, but betting the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 37.5 could be a savvy move. In his last five games away, he's averaged just 24.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists-well below today's mark. While Curry has a reputation for lighting it up, he's only notched 22 points against the Suns in their last outings, and that drops to 20.6 when playing in Phoenix.The Suns are known for their defensive tenacity, which can limit Curry's effectiveness. Plus, with a hit rate of just 4 of 5 games on the road hitting under this total, it's clear that he's been struggling to find that offensive rhythm away from home. Given these trends, targeting the under seems both prudent and well-supported by recent performance.

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we gear up for the Warriors' matchup against the Suns, keeping an eye on Draymond Green's performance is crucial. His recent numbers paint a compelling picture for the Under on his points, rebounds, and assists, set at 20.5. In his last five outings, he's averaged just 4.8 points, a stark contrast to the hefty total we're looking at. Away from home, those numbers dip even further; he's only mustered around 10.2 points and 6.6 assists on average, which isn't enough to clear this line.Moreover, historically, Green has struggled against the Suns, logging a mere 4.6 points over their last five encounters. With a drop-off in rebounds and assists, it's clear the Suns' defense poses a challenge. Given that Green's recent hit rate for this Under is 3 out of 4, betting the Under seems like a smart play in this high-stakes game.

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors : Phoenix Suns win (-154)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Suns have been blistering hot recently, their form reflected in our model's hefty 0.79 prediction for a Phoenix victory. Their recent performances, coupled with home-court advantage, strengthens the case for a Suns win. In the NBA, location can be a significant factor, and the Suns have been using their home court to devastating effect. Moreover, statistically, Golden State has struggled on the road this season, further tilting the scales in Phoenix's favor. The Warriors may have a storied past, but the Suns have been showing they're the team of the present. The 9.3% model edge quantifies this match-up's advantage for the Suns, making them a compelling bet for this game. The numbers, trends, and context all point to Phoenix as the smart choice on the Moneyline market for this game.

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