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Model picks & player props
Phoenix Suns
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder

Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Indoor
Thu 11 Dec 2025, 12:30AM
2
Game Picks
9
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 114.5 (Team Total Points)
For Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA), model win probability 87.5%, fair odds 1.14, book price -526, model edge +3.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 11 Dec 2025, 12:30AM at Paycom Center.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points
Under
114.5
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Phoenix Suns

  • CJ Huntley FDay-to-day
  • Rasheer Fleming FDay-to-day
  • Koa Peat FDay-to-day
  • Khaman Maluach CDay-to-day
  • Mark Williams CDay-to-day
  • Jordan Goodwin GDay-to-day

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Otega Oweh GDay-to-day
  • Aday Mara CDay-to-day
  • Bennett Stirtz GDay-to-day
  • Ajay Mitchell GDay-to-day
  • Thomas Sorber CDay-to-day
  • Jalen Williams GDay-to-day
  • Nikola Topic GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 10:56PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jalen Williams Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Devin Booker Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Devin Booker Phoenix Suns 3-Pointers 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsPhoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City ThunderNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadOklahoma City Thunder spreadNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder (season record) meet Phoenix Suns; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineOklahoma City Thunder to winNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder (season record) host or visit Phoenix Suns; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Oklahoma City Thunder totalNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Phoenix Suns; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Phoenix Suns totalNo line posted

Phoenix Suns averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Oklahoma City Thunder; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns. Includes analysis on key players like Dillon Brooks. Discover NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns stats and odds.</p>

Dillon Brooks (Phoenix Suns) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Dillon Brooks is stepping into a prime position for a standout performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over his last five games, he's averaged 16.6 points and 3.6 rebounds, but here's where it gets interesting: his matchup against the Thunder has historically been favorable. He's been putting up around 18.8 points when facing them, and even better, he's managed 17.2 points per game on the road against this opponent.The Suns will rely heavily on Brooks to step up, especially with the team dynamics shifting. With an expected stat value of 22.83, he's well-positioned to exceed the 19.5 mark for points and rebounds combined. Plus, he's hit this over 11 out of 19 times recently, showcasing that he's capable of rising to the occasion. Given the current odds and his form, backing Brooks to go over feels like a smart play.

Mark Williams (Phoenix Suns) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Mark Williams is primed for a standout performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder this Sunday. Despite his recent averages of 11.2 points and 5.8 rebounds, he's shown a remarkable ability to elevate his game on the road, especially against tougher opponents. In his last six away games, he's exceeded the combined points and rebounds mark in five of those contests, averaging a robust 17.67 in expected stats. What's particularly compelling is his track record against the Thunder; he has managed 11 points and 9.5 rebounds in their last away matchup. With the Suns needing him to step up, Williams is likely to assert himself, especially as he's hitting the over 67% of the time lately when suited up as the visitor. If he maintains that momentum, 14.5 points and rebounds feels not just achievable, but likely. Keep an eye on him; he could be the key to a profitable wager.

Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds (-133)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Phoenix Suns, keep a close eye on Cason Wallace for the points and rebounds prop at over 7.5. Wallace has been heating up lately, averaging 11.8 points and 3.2 rebounds at home over his last five games. He's not just finding his rhythm; he's thriving in front of the home crowd, hitting this mark in all three of his most recent home games.Facing the Suns, he has averaged 11 points and 4 rebounds when playing at home, which bodes well for our bet. With a solid overall hit rate of 65% in his last 20 appearances and a strong 100% success rate at home recently, Wallace is poised to exceed that 7.5 threshold. This matchup feels ripe for him to shine, making this prop a compelling play.

Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds (-182)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Ajay Mitchell is primed for a breakout performance as the Thunder host the Suns. The numbers tell a compelling story: he's been a reliable contributor, especially at home, where he's hit the points and rebounds mark in 12 of his last 13 games. While his average of 10.8 points and 2.6 rebounds at home may seem modest, the context is key. The Suns' defense has struggled against guards like Mitchell, allowing him to score an average of 7.2 points in their last five meetings. With an expected stat value of 17.28, it's clear he's capable of stepping up when the stakes are high. Plus, with a hit rate of 16 out of 20 overall, there's a solid chance he'll exceed that 11.5 mark. Look for Mitchell to deliver at home and help the Thunder push past the Suns.

Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-192)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Suns head into Oklahoma City, Devin Booker is primed for a standout performance. Averaging nearly 28 points and close to 4 rebounds over his last five games, Booker seems to be hitting his stride at just the right moment. Notably, when he hits the road, his scoring jumps to an impressive 28.8 points per game. Against the Thunder, his historical numbers are equally promising, averaging just shy of 18 points per game in their recent encounters. But it's his current form that truly stands out; in his last 11 games, he's cleared the 24.5 mark 10 times, including a perfect 4-for-4 on the road lately. Given that his expected combined points and rebounds sit around 30.58, betting the over feels like a smart play as Booker looks to elevate his game in a pivotal matchup. Expect fireworks!

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 11.5 Rebounds (-435)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder gear up to face the Phoenix Suns, all eyes will be on Chet Holmgren, but betting on him to surpass 11.5 rebounds might be a stretch. While he's shown flashes of brilliance this season, his recent performances reveal a pattern that suggests otherwise. Holmgren has averaged just 7.6 boards at home over his last five games, and against the Suns, he's managed only 7.3 rebounds per game when playing on his own turf.His last 10 outings paint a clear picture: he's hit the under nine times. With the Suns providing a formidable front line, Holmgren may find himself focused more on defensive responsibilities, limiting his rebounding opportunities. Given that he's been under this mark consistently, especially at home, this prop bet leans heavily toward the under, making it a wise choice for this matchup.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Dec 25 Team Total Points Under 114.5 ✓ HIT
11 Dec 25 Team Total Points Over 109.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 11 December 2025 at Paycom Center. The model has generated 2 game picks and 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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