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Model picks & player props
MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies and backs Under 0.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $1,380.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Under 0.5 total runs 1st 5 innings
Under 0.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$138.00Best price+1280
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win5.5%
The price says6.6%

The model graded 70 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,380 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 24 Sep 2026, 6:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 0.5 Long-shot6% chance +1280
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean52% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot8% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot13% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean45% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot21% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot10% chance Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 12 props Leanup to 49% Members
Batter - RBIs × 7 props Leanup to 43% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Leanup to 51% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Long-shotup to 38% Members
Batter - Hits × 5 props Long-shotup to 16% Members
Batter - Walks × 3 props Leanup to 45% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 1 prop Leanup to 52% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies last met on Thu 24 Sep 2026: Milwaukee Brewers won 5-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Under
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,095+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Grant Anderson RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Sep 29, 7:54PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Strikeouts
Jake Bauers MIL Batter - Strikeouts
Trea Turner PHI Batter - RBIs
Luis Arraez MIN Batter - Total Bases
Garrett Mitchell Batter - Strikeouts

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
2.6runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–1SDAway
L3–4SDAway
W3–2SDHome
W4–3SDHome
W6–4STLHome

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.0 runs per game (2-3) while Milwaukee Brewers are at 3.6 (4-1); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 5.2 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Milwaukee Brewers.

4.0
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
3.6
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesMilwaukee Brewers
Runs / game4.03.6
Hits / game7.26.2
Home runs / game0.60.8
Walks drawn / game4.23.2
Batter K / game7.412.2
Earned runs allowed / game5.22.2
Pitching K / game10.47.2
Walks allowed / game2.43.2
L5 record2-34-1

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 2, Milwaukee Brewers won 4.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Sep 2415Milwaukee Brewers
Sep 2314Milwaukee Brewers
Sep 2264Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1404Milwaukee Brewers
Jun 1398Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1206Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Grant Anderson RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for September 25, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 25, 2026 our model has run Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Bryce Harper (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Thursday 24 September 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 14–10 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 8.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 24 Sep 2026, Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies: the Brewers won 5-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
24 Sep 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies1–5Milwaukee Brewers
23 Sep 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies1–4Milwaukee Brewers
22 Sep 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
14 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers4–0Milwaukee Brewers
13 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers8–9Philadelphia Phillies
12 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers6–0Milwaukee Brewers
4 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers0–2Philadelphia Phillies
3 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers6–3Milwaukee Brewers
1 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers8–10Philadelphia Phillies
1 Jun 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies2–5Milwaukee Brewers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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