On Thursday 1 October 2026, Nottingham Forest play Arsenal in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 2.5 Total Goals, priced at -108 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Under 2.5 Total Goals (-108)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Nottingham Forest prepares to host Arsenal, the stage is set for a clash that may not deliver a goal-fest. Forest’s home scoring woes are glaring; they’ve averaged just 0.4 goals per game at home over their last five, coupled with an alarming xG of zero. This lack of offensive firepower has seen them struggle to find the net, resulting in three consecutive draws at the City Ground. Conversely, Arsenal, while formidable away with a 4-0-1 record, has also shown a tendency to keep it tight defensively, conceding only 0.8 goals per game. Given Forest’s struggles and an Arsenal side likely to prioritize control, backing the total goals to stay under 2.5 seems wise. With both teams displaying recent trends pointing to a low-scoring affair, the rationale for this bet strengthens as kickoff approaches.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Nottingham Forest +1.5 Goal Handicap (-222)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Nottingham Forest gears up to face Arsenal, the home side's recent form presents a compelling case for backing them with a 1.5 handicap. Although Forest has struggled lately, averaging a mere 0.4 goals per game at home, they’ve been creating chances, averaging 16 shots, albeit with low accuracy. Meanwhile, Arsenal is riding high with four straight wins, netting an average of 1.6 goals over their last five, showcasing their attacking prowess. However, the Gunners have been vulnerable when facing teams like Forest, who have historically pushed them hard. With the home advantage and a determined crowd, Nottingham can capitalize on Arsenal's defensive lapses. The odds are favorable, suggesting that while Forest might not dominate, they can certainly keep it close or even pull off a surprise. In this context, taking Nottingham Forest with a 1.5 handicap looks like a smart play, offering a blend of risk and potential reward.

That is how our model reads Nottingham Forest v Arsenal. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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