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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Toronto Maple Leafs

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:44AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 9 Dec 2025, 12:30AM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 Spread -161

The model graded 4 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $162 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 9 Dec 2025, 12:30AM at Scotiabank Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win78.9%
The price says61.7%
Best price-161
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 High79% chance -161
Moneyline High71% chance —
Total Goals High99% chance —
Puck Lines High99% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1.5
-161
+ 3 more markets
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All 4 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineTampa Bay Lightning -1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs — recent results

Toronto Maple Leafs have won 0 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3OTTAway
L5–6DALHome
L2–6FLAHome
L3–5NYIAway
L0–4WSHHome
Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Toronto Maple Leafs won 0, Tampa Bay Lightning won 2.

DateToronto Maple LeafsTampa Bay LightningWinner
Mar 825Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 2624Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT
Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Leafs, or as Leafs vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 9 December 2025 at Scotiabank Arena. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Lightning 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
8 Mar 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs2–5Tampa Bay Lightning
26 Feb 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning4–2Tampa Bay Lightning
Today's selected board

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