Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
NHL

Auston Matthews

Toronto Maple Leafs

Value call

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) has one live pick today: under 3.5 shots on goal that pays $198 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
53 in 100
Predicted
3.3 shots on goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.6% · the book's price implies 50.5% · gap +2.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Colorado Avalanche
Ball Arena, Colorado, FUT · Indoor
Sat 10 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
Auston Matthews
under 3.5 shots on goal
Shots on Goal Under 3.5 -102 (1.98) · $100→$198
Value call
LEANWins about 53 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.80 Odds-102
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Auston Matthews is Under 3.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 53%, the price says 51%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 6:52AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal52.6%—50.5%1.90+2.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (-102)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Auston Matthews needs to have fewer than 3.5 shots on goal tonight for this bet to win. Both the Colorado Avalanche and the Toronto Maple Leafs have been struggling lately, with Matthews itself not hitting this mark consistently in recent games. The Avalanche have a solid defense, and they'll be looking to shut down the Maple Leafs' offense. Matthews faces a tough matchup with the Avalanche's strong goaltending. While his talent is undeniable, the overall performance of the Maple Leafs has been shaky, winning only two of their last ten games. There's a real chance he might not find enough opportunities to shoot tonight, but anything could happen in hockey.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Auston Matthews has 3 goals and 5 assists (8 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
8 Oct 26@ VGK0112221:32
6 Oct 26vs NSH1344125:09
3 Oct 26vs OTT1016021:50
30 Sep 26vs NYI0001120:04
29 Sep 26vs MTL0003022:34
12 Mar 26vs ANA1012113:18
10 Mar 26@ MTL0002322:28
7 Mar 26vs TBL0006019:17
5 Mar 26@ NYR0004220:46
4 Mar 26@ NJD0116124:57
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Oct 26 Toronto Maple Leafs @ Colorado Avalanche Shots on Goal — — — Pending
03 Oct 26 Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs Shots on Goal — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Auston Matthews is Under 3.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche on Saturday 10 October at Ball Arena, Colorado. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.