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NHL

John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning

Value call

John Carlson (Tampa Bay Lightning) has one live pick today: over 1.5 goals that pays $6,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
5 in 100
Predicted
0.3 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 5.3% · the book's price implies 1.6% · gap +3.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Winnipeg Jets @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay, FUT · Indoor
Thu 29 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
John Carlson
over 1.5 goals
Goals Over 1.5 +6000 (61.00) · $100→$6,100
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 5 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$610.00 Odds+6000
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for John Carlson is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 5 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 5%, the price says 2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 2:36PM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals5.3%—1.6%18.82+3.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets: John Carlson Over 1.5 Goals (+6000)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For this bet to hit, John Carlson needs to score at least two goals against the Winnipeg Jets. The Lightning have been on a roll, winning seven of their last ten games, showing they can put the puck in the net. Carlson has a chance to shine, especially with Tampa Bay's strong goal-scoring form at home. The Jets have struggled, winning only three of their last ten, which could make it easier for Carlson to find opportunities. While both teams play tough, Carlson has the talent to break through. The biggest risk is how close these teams have played recently, so it might not be a sure thing. Still, it could be a fun shot to take!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

John Carlson has 4 goals and 1 assists (5 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
29 Oct 26vs WPG1013013:12
24 Oct 26@ UTA0000121:41
23 Oct 26@ COL0001118:15
20 Oct 26@ VGK1014017:46
17 Oct 26vs VAN0004218:23
15 Oct 26vs SEA0001021:35
13 Oct 26@ NYR0003119:56
10 Oct 26@ NYI0001220:43
8 Oct 26vs MIN2029216:48
5 Oct 26vs PHI0111017:51
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

John Carlson (Tampa Bay Lightning) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Carlson is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday 29 October at Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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