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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
Dallas Stars

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 4:01AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Indoor
Mon 22 Dec 2025, 12:00AM
1
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 Spread -147

The model graded 2 markets for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $168 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 22 Dec 2025, 12:00AM at American Airlines Center.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.9%
The price says59.5%
Best price-147
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 High67% chance -147
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 58% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1.5
-147
Player props & full board
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

Dallas Stars

  • Arttu Hyry RWOut
  • Roope Hintz COut
  • Tyler Seguin COut
  • Nils Lundkvist DOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 8 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability8 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jake Oettinger Dallas Stars Saves

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Dallas StarsNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars — 1 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

1
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars — recent results

Dallas Stars have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Maple Leafs have won 0 of their last 5.

Dallas Stars — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–5MINAway
L2–4MINHome
L2–3MINAway
W4–3MINAway
W4–2MINHome
Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3OTTAway
L5–6DALHome
L2–6FLAHome
L3–5NYIAway
L0–4WSHHome

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Dallas Stars won 1, Toronto Maple Leafs won 0.

DateDallas StarsToronto Maple LeafsWinner
Apr 1365Dallas Stars

Who’s out or in doubt

8 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Dallas Stars
PlayerStatus
Arttu Hyry RWOUT
Roope Hintz COUT
Tyler Seguin COUT
Nils Lundkvist DOUT
Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars — model preview

Deep dive into Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs hockey action. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Jake Oettinger. Check out NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.

Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs : Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-147)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 is driven by their superior performance as indicated by the L5 statistics and records. The Leafs have consistently outperformed the Stars, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per away game compared to the Stars' 1.6 at home. Additionally, the Leafs have a stronger away record (4-1) compared to the Stars' home record (3-2). This suggests that the Leafs are more effective in scoring and winning, even in away games. Furthermore, the Leafs have a stronger record against the Stars, with 4 wins out of the last 5 games. The model prediction also favors the Leafs, further reinforcing the rationale for the bet. Therefore, the Leafs' superior offensive performance, better head-to-head record, and stronger away performance make them the logical choice in this bet.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Leafs vs Stars, or as Stars vs Leafs. The most recent game between them was Monday 22 December 2025 at American Airlines Center. The model has generated 1 game pick and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Dallas Stars 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Apr 2026Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs5–6Dallas Stars
Today's selected board

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