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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Penguins
VS
Toronto Maple Leafs

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 8:48PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 23 Dec 2025, 9:00PM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline +108

The model graded 4 markets for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $208 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 23 Dec 2025, 9:00PM at Scotiabank Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.6%
The price says48.1%
Best price+108
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Pittsburgh Penguins High61% chance +108
Spread High70% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Penguins
+108
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PenguinsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PenguinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Penguins

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 4 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability4 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Pittsburgh PenguinsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePittsburgh Penguins +1.5No line posted

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs — recent results

Toronto Maple Leafs have won 0 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Penguins have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3OTTAway
L5–6DALHome
L2–6FLAHome
L3–5NYIAway
L0–4WSHHome
Pittsburgh Penguins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–1PHIAway
W3–2PHIHome
W4–2PHIAway
L2–5PHIAway
L0–3PHIHome

Who’s out or in doubt

4 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Toronto Maple Leafs playing Pittsburgh Penguins. Includes analysis on key players like Anthony Stolarz. Analysis includes NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins stats and odds.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins : Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-159)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 is supported by several key statistics. The Penguins have a strong away record, winning 4 out of their last 5 away games, with an average of 3.2 goals per game and only 2 goals against per game. This suggests they have been effective at both scoring and defending in away games. Additionally, the Leafs have an equal average of goals scored and goals against in their last 5 games, indicating they have struggled to outscore their opponents. Furthermore, the Penguins have demonstrated a robust defensive performance, with lower average goals against both at away games and overall compared to the Leafs. While the Leafs have had a better record against the Penguins, recent performance indicates the Penguins have the capacity to keep the game within 1.5 goals.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Penguins vs Leafs, or as Leafs vs Penguins. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 23 December 2025 at Scotiabank Arena. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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